Re: BREAKING: CNN/Fortune: “Is this finally the economic collaps
Shy - great find!
Because I'm ignorant - I went to Wikipedia to look up "Hindenburg Omen."
Wikipedia also states "One nearly occurred on August 11th,
failing only in that 67 stocks hit new lows, rather than the required 69." (see link below)
Hindenburg Omen
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6, 1937, during which the German zeppelin Hindenburg was destroyed.
snip
Criteria
The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen has five criteria:
That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
These measures are calculated each evening using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen.
A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.
The Hindenburg Omen mechanism can be applied to other stock exchanges like Paris, Berlin, Tokyo or Sydney but the criteria for it must overall be the same.
[edit] Possible or known weaknesses
To eliminate false positives some technical analysts (as a rule) have imposed the condition that the Hindenburg Omen
"must be triggered 3 times in a row within a month from the 1st triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid"
must be valid when "all tightly coupled triggerings are within a fortnight" (14 working days)
will indicate a possible future downturn or correction, depending on the magnitude of any "one off" triggering
One off Hindenburg Omen signals are always considered unconfirmed as the indicator has a high false alarm rate. A train of 3 to 5 coupled Hindenburg Omens are preferred by analysts wherever possible.
Read more here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen