Europe's pain is coming America's way
I believe I shall add more preps, immediately!Frida Ghitis
Amsterdam, Netherlands (CNN) -- The problem has become so complicated, that perhaps only a child can solve it.
An 11-year-old Dutch boy, Jurre Hermans, entered a serious economics competition with a plan for bringing the Greek economy back from the brink.
In the end, Hermans, the youngest ever to enter the Wolfson Economics Prize, received a 100 euro voucher for his original idea -- conceived on
the notion of exchanging debt for slices of pizza. Maybe Washington can invite him for some budget brainstorming. Meanwhile, Europe's crisis goes on, still in need of creative solutions.
Beyond the placid old Amsterdam canals, the bustling bike lanes and the quaint tulip fields, roils
a furious debate about the future of the Netherlands. On the surface, the issue is what to do about the budget deficit. In reality,
it is about whose life will become more difficult. Who will pay more? Who will receive less? It is a question coming soon to a deficit-spending country near you: the United States.
In other parts of Europe, in places like Greece and Spain, similar discussions have toppled several governments and have escalated into huge, sometimes violent protests, as
people lash out in frustration against government decisions they find intolerable.
I believe that some time next year, with the election in the past, when either Barack Obama has started his second term or Mitt Romney has finished unpacking in the White House, Americans, too, will discover that budget debates are not just academic exercises or political theater. It's a good bet that just as Europe has come up against the reality that deficits cannot grow forever, so too will America. Investors, who have taken losses in the European debacle, will start looking at America's books, questioning its solvency, and demanding change.
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The Dutch economy, one of the healthier ones, now faces a 4.6% deficit. There's
talk of across-the-board pay freezes and even more social safety-net cuts, among other ideas. Unemployment is just 6%, but
the country has returned to recession.
In Spain, the government wants to avoid requiring a bailout the way Greece, Ireland and Portugal have. The newly-installed government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy needs
to slash the budget by 5.5% of GDP, even more than Greece.
Spain expects unemployment, already the worst in the developed world, to go over 24% this year, about the same experienced by the United States during the Great Depression.
The European crisis is far from over, but it already has important lessons for the United States, where federal deficit figures are treated as poison darts to be thrown among politicians, rather than as an important problem needing adult solutions.
The top three lessons from Europe are these:
• Deficits matter and sooner or later will have to be cut
• Trying to cut deficits in the middle of a recession makes the recession worse
• When the cutting starts, it will cause major social and political upheaval, as well as very real pain. Unlike most European countries, the United States has the luxury of printing money and borrowing almost at will. The crisis in Europe has actually made it more attractive to lend to the United States, so it's easy to pretend the deficit and the debt don't matter. But
America's deficit of about 10% of GDP and debt of $15 trillion, roughly 100% of GDP, cannot go on forever.
Interest payments on the debt already consume more than $200 billion each year, and the debt is rising at blinding speed.
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Voters in the United States should insistently demand that presidential candidates say exactly what they will do about the deficit.
They should also demand that politicians at long last resolve -- not just debate -- the problem.
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Read more here:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/05/opinion/ghitis-europe-america-debt/index.html?hpt=hp_c1