By the CNN Wire Staff

(CNN) -- University forecasters predict the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average, with 15 named storms and eight of those becoming hurricanes.

The Colorado State University report was released Wednesday, nearly two months before the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.

In the report, forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach said that El Niño conditions will dissipate by summer and that unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist, leading to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify.

Of the eight expected hurricanes, the forecasters predict that four will strengthen to major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of strength. Category 3 storms have sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The forecast said the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent. It said there was a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean.

However, the two forecasters emphasize the forecast is preliminary and that revised ones will be released on June 2 and August 4.

"We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem," the report said.

Gray and Klotzbach said that precursors to this year's hurricane season are similar to early April conditions ahead of the 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 seasons. See below for storms from these years.

"All five of these seasons had above-average activity, especially the seasons of 1969, 1998 and 2005," a statement from Colorado State University said.

However, Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2010 season will have slightly less activity than the average of these five earlier years.

Last year's hurricane season was below average, with nine named tropical storms, three of which were hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center said it was the lowest number of tropical storms for the Atlantic basin since 1997.

Klotzbach and Gray put out four predictions for each hurricane season, beginning in December before the season begins.

A typical season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The hurricane season will end November 30, but later storms have been known to happen.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/04/07/hurricane.forecast/index.html?hpt=T2

From Wikipedia:

1958 Atlantic hurricane season
Notable 1958 storms include Hurricane Cleo which reached Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale while remaining in the open Atlantic Ocean; Hurricane Ella, which dumped considerable amounts of rain in southern Texas; Tropical Storm Gerda, which killed three in Puerto Rico; and Hurricane Helene, which caused $7 million in damage (1958 dollars) when it skimmed past Cape Fear, Cape Lookout (North Carolina), and Cape Hatteras.

1966 Atlantic hurricane season
Notable storms of 1966 include Hurricane Alma, which caused death and destruction in Honduras, Cuba, and Florida; and Hurricane Inez, which killed 1,000 people in its trek across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Florida, and Mexico. An unusual storm was Hurricane Faith, which followed an extremely long track from Africa, into the Caribbean, and all the way into the Arctic. It holds the record for having the longest hurricane track in recorded history.

1969 Atlantic hurricane season
The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Camille, the seventh-strongest storm recorded in the Atlantic basin and the second-strongest to make landfall in the United States. Camille made landfall near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, killing 256 and causing $1.4 billion ($9.2 billion in 2005 dollars) in property damage.

Other notable storms include Hurricane Francelia, which caused serious flooding in Belize that killed 100; Hurricane Inga, which lasted almost 25 days and was at the time the second longest-lasting hurricane; and Hurricane Martha, which caused flooding and landslides in Costa Rica and Panama.

1998 Atlantic hurricane season
The most notable storms of the season were Hurricane Georges and Hurricane Mitch. Hurricane Georges caused heavy damages across the Caribbean Sea and on the United States' Gulf Coast as well as 604 deaths. Hurricane Mitch killed at least 11,000 people, mostly in Honduras and Nicaragua, making it the deadliest hurricane of modern times. Another notable hurricane was Hurricane Bonnie which caused $1 billion in damage to North Carolina and Virginia. The worst in those states since Hurricane Fran of the 1996 season. Total number of fatalities in 1998 was at least 12,000 people, however the exact death toll from Hurricane Mitch is unknown it was estimated between 11,000 to 18,000 people killed. In the Spring of 1999 the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Georges and Mitch. Those two names were replaced by Gaston and Matthew in the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.

2005 Atlantic hurricane season
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history, repeatedly shattering numerous records. The impact of the season was widespread and ruinous with an estimated 3,865 deaths and record damages of about $130 billion (2005 USD). Of the storms that made landfall, five of the season's seven major hurricanes—Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma—were responsible for most of the destruction. The Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatán and the U.S. states of Florida and Louisiana were each struck twice by major hurricanes; Cuba, the Bahamas, Haiti, Mississippi, Texas, and Tamaulipas were each struck once and in each case brushed by at least one more. The most catastrophic effects of the season were felt on the United States' Gulf Coast, where a 30-foot (10 m) storm surge from Hurricane Katrina caused devastating flooding that inundated New Orleans, Louisiana and destroyed most structures on the Mississippi coastline; and in Guatemala, where Hurricane Stan combined with an extratropical system to cause deadly mudslides.

Oh Yippee, Skippy!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37360717/ns/weather/

'Hell of a year' for hurricanes, experts warn

updated 2 hours, 12 minutes ago
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - The threat of an above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has increased over the last month and it now promises to be "very active," two leading forecasters said Wednesday. The warning comes as the season also sees an unusual factor added to the mix: the Gulf oil disaster.

William Gray and Phil Klozbach, who head the respected Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, said they would ramp up their prediction for the 2010 season in a report due out on June 2.

"The numbers are going to go up quite high," Gray said. "This looks like a hell of a year."

On Tuesday, a private weather forecasting company said the 2010 season could be the most active since 2005, which was the most active in recorded history.

Weather Services International predicted 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes, rated as Category 3 storm with winds of 110-130 mph, or greater.

That is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period of 14 named storm, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

These numbers are also an increase from WSI's April forecast of 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its updated 2010 hurricane season forecast on Thursday.

The forecasts are widely watched by energy and commodity markets for signs of potential weather disruptions to oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico during the June to November hurricane season.

Other meteorologists have already predicted conditions are ripe for an unusually destructive hurricane season, which could disrupt efforts to clean up BP's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

East Coast cited at higher risk
WSI said the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine was twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

"Our model suggests the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said in a release.

WSI said the 2009 tropical season was the quietest since 1997, as an emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters to suppress widespread storm development.

"However, the primary drivers for tropical activity have sharply reversed course this year and everything is in place for an incredibly active season ... eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for May, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005," Crawford said.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which included Hurricanes Katrina and Rita that devastated the oil and natural gas-rich U.S. Gulf Coast, was the most active in history, causing more than 1,500 U.S. deaths and more than $115 billion in damages, according to the National Hurricane Center.

"While we've increased our forecast numbers in both of the last two monthly updates, we are still more likely to raise than lower these numbers going forward," Crawford noted.

Yikes better get those preps in order BB

Yikes, better bring in the flowers as well, don't want them all covered in oil, Blue. I sure hope their are wrong!!

Yeppers on the preps - going full blast on it now.

Nah, Siam, the oil is east of us but who knows where it will go with a big one. Unfortunately, June is the prime time for Gulf-spawned hurricanes. That's the bad news but the good news is that they don't have time to really get huge like the ones from the African coast. The bad news is that the Gulf's waters are in the 80's right now. Sooooooo....

Won't even take a hurricane to do a lot of damage. Two tropical storms have hit this area in June - both of which produced rainfall totals of over 20 inches - one of over 40 inches - causing major flooding. Shoot we flood even with a normal rain. That's because in the Houston/Galveston area all the bayous (rivers) drain into the Gulf and into Galveston Bay. These bayous cannot drain at high tide so the water backs up. Also, we are in what is called "coastal prairie" meaning flat as a board - no hills, valleys, mountains - just flat land.

Got flood insurance for the first time on Monday, too. Our lot is raised about 8 feet above the street level by the new flood code but ya never know right? So that puts us about 35 feet above sea level - more or less.