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 Season's first named storm on tap? 
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 Season's first named storm on tap?
:why

There's a chance the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may see its first named storm form during the next few days deep in the tropics.

The National Hurricane Center gives a broad area of low pressure out in the Atlantic Ocean about a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm during the next two days.

As you can see in the enhanced satellite image below, the system, dubbed 92L, is closer to Africa at this point than the Caribbean Sea (92L is in the lower left-hand corner of the image).

Image

NOAA

The system is moving to the west and eventually the models (see below) predict it will track toward the Caribbean Sea. However, wind shear over the storm should increase by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, limiting its potential for development.

Image

Therefore 92L, even if it becomes the season's first tropical storm, probably won't be a threat.

As we've previously discussed, forecasters believe this hurricane season will be a busy one, with at least 50 percent more storms than normal.

Typically there's a June named storm about once every other year, so we'd expect to have one during an active year. During the record-breaking 2005 season, we'd already had Tropical Storm Arlene (formed June 8) by this point of the year.

I will say, however, that if we're seeing named storms develop out of African waves at this early of a date, the predictions of a very active season are looking spot on.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... n_tap.html

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Sun Jun 13, 2010 2:17 pm
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
:whistle

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. :doh

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

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Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:43 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
I don't know if this is the same system, but I'm reading reports of a possible hurricane approaching the Gulf:

Forecasters eye possible Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane

Forecasters are keeping an eye near the Yucatan Peninsula as an area of strong thunderstorms has formed.

Computer models bring this area of storms and associated surface low pressure center into the Gulf Of Mexico within a week.

As the storm nears, the National Hurricane Center has stated that they will issue the proper warnings if needed.

Some forecasters at the center have told TheWeatherSpace.com that they fully expect the area to develop within the next few days after it crosses over the peninsula.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/06- ... icane.html

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Tue Jun 22, 2010 8:54 pm
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
No, this is a different system but this is a good place to put it.

Checked Storm2K this am - models all over the place on this baby. Some are showing direct Cat 3 hit on New Orleans, some on Mobile and one shows nothing in the Gulf.

So...

From satellite images this morning, this bad baby is having a hard time getting it together. NHC forecast at 8:am EDT:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

They've downgraded the percent chance again but this bears close monitoring.

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Wed Jun 23, 2010 6:34 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
Image

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF TSRA FROM AUS-CLL-DWH FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. BUT AS OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND BE SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SO HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RICH MOISTURE IS
GOING TO SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN QUICKLY EAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. POSES ISSUES WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HAVE TENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS AND EXT NERN MEXICO
. SO EXPECT WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE DROPS
QUICKLY AND HAVE GONE WITH OR BELOW MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT THAT GFS IF PROGGING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH UNLESS TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND STAYS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK
.

000
FXUS64 KBRO 242051
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
WHICH RESIDED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. ALL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS KEPT
NEAR MOS GUIDANCE. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE ISOLATED
SEABREEZE AND MARINE CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GULF
WATERS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL SHOW HEIGHTS LOWERING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS THE 500MB RIDGE READJUSTS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WEAKER FLOW AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BUMP UP HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND
COUNTIES TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR HIGHS...LEADING TO
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

PWATS ANTICIPATED TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF
. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODEL AND
NHC GUIDANCE SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND
FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
RANGING FROM THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT TO THE 12Z
ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A TROPICAL STORM INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY NO
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SHOWN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL BETTER
CONSENSUS ARISES.

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Thu Jun 24, 2010 2:54 pm
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
Hmmm a one/two punch? :censor

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. :gah

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT.
..OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:25 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
000
FXUS64 KBRO 250906
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
406 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

snip

WE`RE STARTING TO
MONITOR THE MASS OF MOISTURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOST
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AND LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL HAVING ITS WAY WITH THE ELONGATED
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. WHEN AND WHETHER THE ACTIVITY ESCAPES
THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...BUT CARIBBEAN AND GULF
WATERS ARE NOW SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SOMETHING TO "GO" SHOULD A
TRUE CIRCULATION DEVELOP.

BOTTOM LINE: NO SENSE IN SPECULATING JUST YET ABOUT CONTINUED
UNKNOWNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ABOUT THE ONLY CAUTION WE CAN GIVE IS
THAT FORECASTS FROM NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY FROM WHAT WE HAVE THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED...AND CHECK
FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251119
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

snip
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
YUCATAN THEN EMERGE IN THE SRN GULF LATE SUNDAY(ISH). TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT IT WILL END UP LOOKING LIKE AS IT DOES SO. MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SFC LOW REDEVELOPING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFS. THAT BEING SAID IT ALSO APPEARS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SRLY TRACK TOWARD MEXICO AS GFS HAS BEEN
HINTING AT FOR A WHILE. NOT PLANNING TO CHANGE THE ONGOING
EXTENDED AS IT`LL BE JUST SWATTING AT FLIES UNTIL IF/WHEN THE
SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING
ALONG WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. 47

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:35 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
Stay safe BB

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Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:37 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
I got my eye on this one. ;)

We're planning to empty out the bug-out bag this weekend and repack.

We're making a run to Academy for some more propane bottles. We really didn't use these after Ike because we still had gas and water - but ya never know, right?

East Texas is getting the survival stuff together in one area of the garage. I don't know how this stuff gets moved around over a year but it does. :roll

We will double check the water supply, I think we have plenty but I want to make sure. I have at least 2 gallons in jugs that I will freeze.

He is backing up the computer to cd and a thumb drive today.

He will get the gas containers together but no gas, yet.

I need to recheck my plastic garbage bag in my chest freezer to make sure it hasn't been ripped.

If/when the storm gets into the Gulf we will swing into full mode meaning get gas, check batteries, get papers together (insurance, deed, mortage, other documents), start putting stuff in plastic bags and fill the chest freezer with items from the indoor freezer.

Once all of this is done and it looks like it might head our way then we really swing into action depending on which side of us it might make landfall. Don't even want to think about this now. :nono :noway :whistle

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:33 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
BB, thanks for keeping us updated! I know you are an old hand at this, but stay safe. Meanwhile, I am going to keep an eye on HAARP readings, just for the fun of it........

Here is the baseline I'll use to evaluate HAARP activity in the coming days: UPDATE: I can't post a baseline because the graph updates automatically. A baseline would be the three lines all at the midline, with little up or down variation.

Image

WOW, the graphs update automatically! I came back to copy this post for a thread I'm starting on HAARP, and found this! look at the amount of activity.

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"The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything." ~ Albert Einstein


Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:33 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
Oh cool, Ruts! :clap

Frankie - one of the pro mets at Storm2K is forecasting a north central Gulf hit. Eyes on the Gulf, my dear! :sherlock

He is saying this storm will get stuck between two low pressure systems and will be sucked north.

Take it for what it is worth, however, we still have a long way to go.

BTW - Hurricane Hunter aircraft is over the system now. They are trying to locate a center but the wind speeds are already 30 mph. Soon we may have Alex. :scared

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:49 am
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Post Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:52 am
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