The Golden Thread http://www.thegoldenthread.info/phpBB3/ |
|
Season's first named storm on tap? http://www.thegoldenthread.info/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=2035 |
Page 1 of 1 |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Sun Jun 13, 2010 2:17 pm ] |
Post subject: | Season's first named storm on tap? |
There's a chance the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may see its first named storm form during the next few days deep in the tropics. The National Hurricane Center gives a broad area of low pressure out in the Atlantic Ocean about a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm during the next two days. As you can see in the enhanced satellite image below, the system, dubbed 92L, is closer to Africa at this point than the Caribbean Sea (92L is in the lower left-hand corner of the image). NOAA The system is moving to the west and eventually the models (see below) predict it will track toward the Caribbean Sea. However, wind shear over the storm should increase by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, limiting its potential for development. Therefore 92L, even if it becomes the season's first tropical storm, probably won't be a threat. As we've previously discussed, forecasters believe this hurricane season will be a busy one, with at least 50 percent more storms than normal. Typically there's a June named storm about once every other year, so we'd expect to have one during an active year. During the record-breaking 2005 season, we'd already had Tropical Storm Arlene (formed June 8) by this point of the year. I will say, however, that if we're seeing named storms develop out of African waves at this early of a date, the predictions of a very active season are looking spot on. http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... n_tap.html |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:43 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN NNNN |
Author: | rutsuyasun [ Tue Jun 22, 2010 8:54 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
I don't know if this is the same system, but I'm reading reports of a possible hurricane approaching the Gulf: Forecasters eye possible Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Forecasters are keeping an eye near the Yucatan Peninsula as an area of strong thunderstorms has formed. Computer models bring this area of storms and associated surface low pressure center into the Gulf Of Mexico within a week. As the storm nears, the National Hurricane Center has stated that they will issue the proper warnings if needed. Some forecasters at the center have told TheWeatherSpace.com that they fully expect the area to develop within the next few days after it crosses over the peninsula. http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/06- ... icane.html |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Wed Jun 23, 2010 6:34 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
No, this is a different system but this is a good place to put it. Checked Storm2K this am - models all over the place on this baby. Some are showing direct Cat 3 hit on New Orleans, some on Mobile and one shows nothing in the Gulf. So... From satellite images this morning, this bad baby is having a hard time getting it together. NHC forecast at 8:am EDT: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. They've downgraded the percent chance again but this bears close monitoring. |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Thu Jun 24, 2010 2:54 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 333 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010 .DISCUSSION... CLUSTER OF TSRA FROM AUS-CLL-DWH FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. BUT AS OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND BE SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RICH MOISTURE IS GOING TO SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN QUICKLY EAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. POSES ISSUES WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. HAVE TENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS AND EXT NERN MEXICO. SO EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE DROPS QUICKLY AND HAVE GONE WITH OR BELOW MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT THAT GFS IF PROGGING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH UNLESS TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND STAYS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. 000 FXUS64 KBRO 242051 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 351 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SEABREEZE WHICH RESIDED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS KEPT NEAR MOS GUIDANCE. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE ISOLATED SEABREEZE AND MARINE CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL SHOW HEIGHTS LOWERING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE 500MB RIDGE READJUSTS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WEAKER FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BUMP UP HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND COUNTIES TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR HIGHS...LEADING TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ANTICIPATED TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODEL AND NHC GUIDANCE SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A TROPICAL STORM INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SHOWN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS ARISES. |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:25 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
Hmmm a one/two punch? ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. 2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:35 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
000 FXUS64 KBRO 250906 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010 snip WE`RE STARTING TO MONITOR THE MASS OF MOISTURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOST MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL HAVING ITS WAY WITH THE ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. WHEN AND WHETHER THE ACTIVITY ESCAPES THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...BUT CARIBBEAN AND GULF WATERS ARE NOW SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SOMETHING TO "GO" SHOULD A TRUE CIRCULATION DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE: NO SENSE IN SPECULATING JUST YET ABOUT CONTINUED UNKNOWNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ABOUT THE ONLY CAUTION WE CAN GIVE IS THAT FORECASTS FROM NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM WHAT WE HAVE THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED...AND CHECK FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV. 000 FXUS64 KHGX 251119 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 619 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010 snip TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE YUCATAN THEN EMERGE IN THE SRN GULF LATE SUNDAY(ISH). TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT IT WILL END UP LOOKING LIKE AS IT DOES SO. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SFC LOW REDEVELOPING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THAT BEING SAID IT ALSO APPEARS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SRLY TRACK TOWARD MEXICO AS GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT FOR A WHILE. NOT PLANNING TO CHANGE THE ONGOING EXTENDED AS IT`LL BE JUST SWATTING AT FLIES UNTIL IF/WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING ALONG WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. 47 |
Author: | L2L [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:37 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
Stay safe BB |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:33 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
I got my eye on this one. We're planning to empty out the bug-out bag this weekend and repack. We're making a run to Academy for some more propane bottles. We really didn't use these after Ike because we still had gas and water - but ya never know, right? East Texas is getting the survival stuff together in one area of the garage. I don't know how this stuff gets moved around over a year but it does. We will double check the water supply, I think we have plenty but I want to make sure. I have at least 2 gallons in jugs that I will freeze. He is backing up the computer to cd and a thumb drive today. He will get the gas containers together but no gas, yet. I need to recheck my plastic garbage bag in my chest freezer to make sure it hasn't been ripped. If/when the storm gets into the Gulf we will swing into full mode meaning get gas, check batteries, get papers together (insurance, deed, mortage, other documents), start putting stuff in plastic bags and fill the chest freezer with items from the indoor freezer. Once all of this is done and it looks like it might head our way then we really swing into action depending on which side of us it might make landfall. Don't even want to think about this now. |
Author: | rutsuyasun [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:33 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
BB, thanks for keeping us updated! I know you are an old hand at this, but stay safe. Meanwhile, I am going to keep an eye on HAARP readings, just for the fun of it........ Here is the baseline I'll use to evaluate HAARP activity in the coming days: UPDATE: I can't post a baseline because the graph updates automatically. A baseline would be the three lines all at the midline, with little up or down variation. WOW, the graphs update automatically! I came back to copy this post for a thread I'm starting on HAARP, and found this! look at the amount of activity. |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:49 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
Oh cool, Ruts! Frankie - one of the pro mets at Storm2K is forecasting a north central Gulf hit. Eyes on the Gulf, my dear! He is saying this storm will get stuck between two low pressure systems and will be sucked north. Take it for what it is worth, however, we still have a long way to go. BTW - Hurricane Hunter aircraft is over the system now. They are trying to locate a center but the wind speeds are already 30 mph. Soon we may have Alex. |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:52 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Season's first named storm on tap? |
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. |
Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ] |
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |