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 Hurricane Alex 
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 Hurricane Alex
000
WTNT41 KNHC 260847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTNT21 KNHC 260847
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 84.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 84.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Last edited by Bluebonnet on Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:19 am, edited 2 times in total.

Updated storm status to hurricane



Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:12 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
FXUS64 KBRO 260905
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.snip
&&

.LONG TERM /7 PM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...IN A NUTSHELL...THE LONG
TERM FORECAST CAN BE SUMMARIZED IN ONE WORD: DIFFICULT. DECIDED TO
MAKE NO RADICAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS A GREAT DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY ISLANDS. SUITE OF FORECAST
MODELS PLACES FUTURE POSITION OF ALEX ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MOVING ALEX TOWARDS THE UPPER
EAST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE STRENGTH OF A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF JULY 1. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BASED UPON SCENARIO OF ALEX NOT MOVING DIRECTLY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A MORE DIRECT STRIKE BY ALEX
WOULD OF COURSE RESULT IN MORE COPIOUS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND
STRONGER WINDS...SO RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR SUCCESSIVE FORECASTS. THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR
CLOSE FORECAST COORDINATION EARLIER TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE COASTAL WATERS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGEST INFLUENCE.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND.

7 PM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE UPPER EAST COAST OF MEXICO AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.
AT A MINIMUM...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED...
WITH MUCH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY IF ALEX DIRECTLY PASSES
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND GAINS
STRENGTH. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST MARINE FORECASTS BEFORE FORMULATING EXCURSION PLANS. THANKS
TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR CLOSE MARINE FORECAST COORDINATION EARLIER
TONIGHT.
&&

000
FXUS64 KCRP 260848
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

snip
&&

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH MID/UPR LVL RIDGE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUN NGT-TUE. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MON-TUE. INCREASING LOW TO MID
LVL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL BEND TUE AFTN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THE WED-FRI PERIOD DUE TO THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF RECENTLY UPGRADED TS ALEX. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS WILL
THE TROUGH DIPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NERN STATES BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAW THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK LIKE THE 00Z GFS INDICATES
OR WILL THE RIDGE HOLD AND KEEP IT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. NHC SLOWS THE SYSTEM WAY DOWN ON WED/THU
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY
THUS WILL ELECT TO ONLY PLACE 20/30% POPS IN
THE FCST THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL THE TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TS ALEX. GIVEN THAT A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY RAISE THE SEAS TO 4-5 FT BY MID
WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE
TRACK OF ALEX BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.


000
FXUS64 KHGX 260910
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

snip

FCST INTO THE MID/LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK HINGES ON WHAT THE
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ENDS UP DOING. IT IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE
YUCATAN THIS WEEKEND AND EMERGE IN THE SRN GULF LATE SUNDAY. FROM
THERE THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES IT TO AROUND 275 MILES SOUTH OF
MATAGORDA BAY (OR 150 MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE) LATE WED NIGHT
...WHICH
IS GENERALLY A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF LATEST 6Z
GUIDANCE SPAGHETTI PLOT. GFS IS SHOWING A BROAD 1006MB LOW IN THAT
SAME GENERAL VICINITY AT THAT TIME THEN DRIFTS IT AROUND OFF THE
UPPER TX COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. FWIW...ECMWF TAKES IT TOWARD
TAMPICO WED MORNING...NOGAPS & CANADIAN TO S TX WED/WED NT. KIND
OF AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AT THAT TIME WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH
OFF BAJA...ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE ERN GULF...AND A THIRD ONE
IN THE PLAINS (AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM
ALL). UNTIL ALEX MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF AND REORGANIZES AND THE
UPPER PATTERN/DOMINATING STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE CLEAR...THE
FCST FOR SE TX WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
. FOR NOW...PLAN ON
NUDGING POPS UP OFFSHORE AND CLOSER TO THE COAST NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LARGE.

STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WHAT TIDES WILL DO AS WELL BUT WOULD
ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT RISE AS AN E/ENE FETCH BEGINS SETTING UP. 47

MARINE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE MARINE FCST WITH
THIS NEXT PACKAGE. AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESS-
URE AND A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FCST IS WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED.
MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE SC/SW GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEEDLESS TO SAY A LOT OF THIS PART OF THE FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE/
WHEN ALEX TRACKS. 41


&&

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:21 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
FXUS64 KLCH 260949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA449 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
snip.

FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEPENDS ON TROPICAL STORM
ALEX COMING INTO THE GULF AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKING DOWN MID
TO LATE WEEK. HOW THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER
ETC.

MOST MODELS DO AGREE WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. ALL THE WHILE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
IN THAT DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME TROPICAL STORM ALEX WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE DAY 4
TO 5 TIME FRAME WITH HOW TO HANDLE ALEX. PER NHC THE IDEA IS TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM HEADED TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO AT
DAY 5.


NONE THE LESS WE ARE EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WITH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DID INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE HAD GOING PREVIOUSLY...BUT STILL NOT AS
HIGH AS THE GFS.


&&

.MARINE...
ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX FOR NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME ONLY 10 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
. STILL THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY RATHER LARGE AND MODELS ARE FORECASTING IT TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF INFLUENCE IN THE GULF. IN
ADDITION WINDS IN THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25
KNOTS. SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATER. WAVE GUIDANCE IS PRODUCING 6 TO
8 FOOT SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE LONG FETCH OF
WINDS. HAVE TONED THESE DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY NEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK IF THESE
HIGH SEAS DO END UP MATERIALIZING.


&&

000
FXUS64 KMOB 260944
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
444 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

snip

&&

.MARINE...BIG STORY THIS AM IS THE FORMATION OF THE FIRST NAMED
STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL SEASON. HIS NAME IS ALEX
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...OFF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER TAKES THE CENTER OF ALEX ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RE-EMERGING OUT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE APPROACHING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TO NORTHERN MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE SPECIFICS ON FORECASTS
AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE VARIOUS WEATHER/TRACK
MODELS ON ALEX...REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IN MIAMI.

AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY IMPACTS WE EXPECT FROM ALEX WILL BE A BUILD
IN SEAS AND AN INCREASE IN SWELL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK
EMANATING OUTWARD FROM THE STORM. ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF ALEX. STAY
TUNED. /10

&&

000
FXUS62 KJAX 260829
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

snip

MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE
REMAINING PERIOD LARGELY DEPENDENT ON INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MAV/MET AND HAVE LIKELY POPS FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY NORTH
INTO INLAND SE GA AND SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER BUT WILL STILL HAVE HEAT INDICES 100-105.

.LONG TERM...WILL FOLLOW REASONING MENTIONED ABOVE FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. ECMWF DOES EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP WITH THE APPROACH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE OF THE GFS. WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH RANGE SCT POPS EXPECTED. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEAR CLIMO.

&&

snip

&&

.MARINE...LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT
ON FUTURE MOVEMENT OF CARIBBEAN/GOMEX TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS
WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WHERE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENDS UP. HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CONSERVATIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DURING THE LAST 48 HRS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:29 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
So there you have it for this morning. I'm having issues with photobucket (keeps crashing the 'puter) and can't post the NHC's 5 day forecast zone. See link below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Right now the outside right edge of the cone brings it uncomfortably close to me. :nono

We shall see...

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:32 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Here ya go BB, yuo stay safe down there ya hear...

Image

_________________
Image Please Obey the Golden Rules viewtopic.php?f=31&t=3563&p=40912#p40912


Sat Jun 26, 2010 6:30 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Thanks, L! Don't know what Photobucket's problem was this morning! :rant

000
WTNT41 KNHC 261446
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON 3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE
STRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS
THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE
COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE
NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 262031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER ALEX...WEATHER DETERIORATING
FAST IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND
...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
YUCATAN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ALEX MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT IN THE BAY ISLANDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sat Jun 26, 2010 1:36 pm
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
It ain't good when the NHC has "low confidence" in its current forecast track, folks.

The models have shifted a bit north and are now split between

Mexico
Brownsville
Corpus Christi
Matagorda Bay
Sabine Pass

:shock: It's a big :nono on Matagorda Bay - that puts me on the dirty side and I'm outta here!

Sabine Pass means my East Texas bunch get it AGAIN!

GAH!


000
WTNT21 KNHC 272033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 90.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 90.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 90.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.9N 91.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.3N 94.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 96.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 90.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. NEAR THE
CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ
RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE
GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.2N 90.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.9N 91.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 92.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 22.3N 94.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 23.2N 96.3W 80 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 24.0N 98.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:55 pm
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
The Weather Channel just stated crews are being pulled from the BP rig and other rigs in the Gulf.

A check of Storm2K shows the latest model runs are moving the storm North.

It doesn't look good for the little flower and her vicinity at this time.

The pressure has dramatically dropped as well - this usually means a more northward turn.

Some of the pro mets on Storm2K are likening Alex to Audrey.

Hurricane Audrey
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of the 1957 Atlantic hurricane season. Audrey was the only storm to reach Category 4 status in June. A powerful hurricane, Audrey caused catastrophic damage across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. It then affected the South Central United States as a powerful extratropical storm. The heaviest rainfall directly from Audrey fell near the Gulf coast, though heavy rainfall across the Midwest was caused by its moisture flowing towards a weather front to the north. In its wake, Audrey left $1 billion (2005 USD) in damage and 416 fatalities. At the time period, the devastation from Hurricane Audrey was the worst since the Great New England Hurricane of 1938.[2]

This ain't good folks - this ain't good at all.

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:00 pm
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Please stay safe BB we will be thinking of you :scared

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Image Please Obey the Golden Rules viewtopic.php?f=31&t=3563&p=40912#p40912


Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:07 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
WTNT41 KNHC 280851
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -84C HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
TO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO
51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE
. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO
MEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON
ITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE
IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS
. FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...
CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE
MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL
SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.
THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.


THE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING
GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.7N 91.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.3N 91.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 22.4N 93.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 23.3N 94.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 24.6N 97.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.6N 99.2W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT21 KNHC 280851
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 91.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 91.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 91.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N 91.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.4N 93.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 94.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.6N 97.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 130SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.6N 99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 101.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 91.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:21 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
FXUS64 KBRO 280855
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
355 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY/...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
IS BASED UPON THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY PROGNOSTICATION OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX PRODUCED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN
GENERAL...AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
AS THE OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX APPROACH FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM WILL NOW
BE MORE INFLUENCED BY ALEX. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH THE FORECAST SIZE OF ALEX NOW
BEING MORE OF A CONTROLLING FACTOR IN WHAT PATH THE MODELS TEND TO
TAKE HIM.
THE MOST RECENT PATH MAINTAINS A THREAT TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST
. USED A COMPROMISE BLEND OF THE ECMF AND GFS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN...AND
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES INTO ALL OF THE LONG RANGE...
WHILE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MUCH DRIER. THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPS A BIT...WITH BOTH HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES SKEWED LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY.

snip
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC
. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TODAY...AS SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ALEX AFFECTS
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A GRADUAL BUILD IN SEAS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
...AS THE SOUTHEAST SWELLS BUILD AND ALEX CONTINUES TO APPROACH.

7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX. GENERALLY...VERY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ALEX MOVES NORTHWEST AND
THEN WEST INTO MEXICO...MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS SWELLS FROM ALEX SUBSIDE.

000
FXUS64 KCRP 281153 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...PWATS/MOISTURE INCREASE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...GIVING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER PWATS FROM GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY ARE
INFLUENCED BY MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF ALEX TOWARD THE
AREA...WHICH IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
.
THUS...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS (GENERALLY INCREASED 10
PERCENT FOR TUESDAY). MORE CLOUDS MAINLY ON TUESDAY MAY KEEP TEMPS
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN TODAY`S GENERAL PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY`S WARM DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS PERHAPS A DEGREE HIGHER
THAN PERSISTENCE GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. ANOTHER
HUMID ONE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE AS
WAS SUNDAY
. SINCE THE MOST INTERESTING/CHALLENGING PORTION IS IN THE
LONG TERM...WILL CUT THIS SHORT.

MARINE...WINDS AND SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND SO WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED KBRO`S SEA FORECAST WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ALEX`S POSITION AND LIKELY INTENSIFICATION.
BASED ON FOR FORECAST TRACK FROM ALEX...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN/SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE UPDATED SO MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THE TREND (MODELS AND FORECAST) HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT ALEX FARTHER NORTH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE RISE IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE CONTINUED FORMATION OF TROPICAL
STORM ALEX IN THE GULF. ALONG WITH THE COORDINATION WITH HPC ON
THE TRACKING OF T.S. ALEX...MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING THE CWA TO EXPERIENCE MORE
ACTIVITY FROM THE STORM. GIVEN THE WARMS SST AND LACK OF STRONG
SHEAR AND THE CURRENT FORMATION OF T.S. ALEX...HPC IS THINKING THE
STORM WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE EVEN MORE AS IT
APPROACHES THESE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
WITH THIS SAID...HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH...BEGINNING TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE STEERING TRACK OF
T.S. ALEX IS STILL UNCERTAIN
. FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOW A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS ANY REMNANTS OF T.S. ALEX WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CWA AFTER A GIVEN LANDFALL DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX AS THE EXACT INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNCLEAR.
STAY TUNED AND INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING ALEX.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

snip

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/

DISCUSSION...
snip

ALEX HAS EMERGED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK GOES...RANGING FROM MATAGORDA
COUNTY (GFS) TO NRN MEXICO (ECMWF).
THE 00Z ECMWF LANDFALL
POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF THE 12Z RUN. CONDITIONS OVER
THE GULF WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG INTENSIFICATION.


UNFORTUNATELY TROF FCST TO DIP DOWN ACROSS EAST COAST NOW APPEARS
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF ENOUGH FOR A MORE
NWWD TRACK. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME ARE THE OVERALL NWD FCST TRENDS.

RIDGE FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROF IN THE PLAINS COULD VERY WELL BE
THE KEY PLAYER AS TO KEEPING THE NASTIEST PART OF THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW/POSITIONING INTO MID WEEK. VERY VERY VERY MINUTE
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE COULD END UP IN THE DIFFERENCE
AS TO WHERE ALEX GOES INLAND.
ECMWF/UKMET EXTEND A LITTLE (AND I
MEAN LITTLE) HIGHER HEIGHTS DOWN INTO CNTL TX THAN GFS AND CANADIAN...
HENCE A MORE SWD LANDFALL. (ANY OTHER DAY OF THE WEEK I`D WRITE
THE HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OFF AS NEGLIGIBLE). WILL CONTINUE GEARING
FCST TOWARD OFFICIAL TRACK BUT AM GETTING A BIT MORE CONCERNED... :shock:

OVERALL CIRCULATION WILL BE LARGE AND TS FORCE WINDS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXTEND UPWARDS OF 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. A
CONTINUED JOG TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING THESE WINDS INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MARINE WATERS AND CWA.


TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
THESE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH ERLY
FETCH AND INCREASING SEAS IN PLACE. THIS COULD PUT BEACHFRONT
LOCATIONS AT RISK FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. WAVE
RUN-UP WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE
SITUATION BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

SO THRU AT LEAST THURS...EXPECT BANDS OF SHRA/TSTMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE BETTER
CHANCES.
TEMPS ARE UP FOR GRABS AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
RAINFALL/CLOUD SITUATION. DIDN`T GO AS LOW AS GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS
OR AS HIGH OF POPS YET. DID EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ASSUMING A FCST SOMEWHAT LIKE ECMWF PANS OUT...A DEEP
SERLY FETCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THEN.

MARINE...
A LOT TO CONSIDER FOR THE UPCOMING FCST AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX MAKES
ITSELF A LOT MORE RELEVANT TO THE TX COAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS (UPWARD) STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ALONG
WITH ADDING AN SCEC. ONCE AGAIN A LOT OF THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED PART OF
THE FCST WILL DEPEND UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ALEX AND ITS INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE S/SWRN GULF. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.
41

&&

:censor

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:31 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Alex to Keep Strengthening Over the Western Gulf of Mexico

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Jun 28, 2010; 4:28 AM ETShare |

Alex continues to strengthen, after emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula over the Bay of Campeche on Sunday. The storm is expected to become a hurricane before targeting eastern Mexico by Thursday, however, a northward turn through the western Gulf of Mexico cannot be ruled out.

As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Alex was located about 75 miles west of Campeche, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is moving to the northwest at 6 mph.

Winds in the upper atmosphere remain weak and the water plenty warm enough to support strengthening into a hurricane over the next few days.

Alex should keep getting steered slowly northwestward toward the eastern Mexico coast today by a broad area of high pressure spanning Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm will start to turn more to the north-northwest as the area of high pressure weakens tonight into Tuesday.

Flooding rains will continue to deluge Guatemala and southeast Mexico today into tonight.

The storm is currently expected to reach Category 2 strength around midweek over the western Gulf of Mexico.

With the current projected path, landfall can occur from near Victoria, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico, sometime early Thursday. :censor

Flooding and mudslides will be a serious concern, especially since the Sierra Madre Mountains will enhance the rain. Damaging winds, perhaps up to 110 mph near the coast, will also accompany Alex during landfall.

A landfall along the eastern Mexico coast would keep the worst of the storm away from the oil spill area, but the area could still be impacted. At the very least, seas will build and reduce the effectiveness of the boom systems.

The severity of Alex's impacts on the oil spill area would increase tremendously if the storm takes a turn farther to the north, a track that cannot totally be ruled out by AccuWeather.com meteorologists. :nono

In this scenario, Alex would begin to turn northward by Tuesday. The storm could then approach the eastern Texas or Louisiana coasts. :doh

The longer Alex churns over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the greater the chance of the storm strengthening into a stronger hurricane. :noway

All interests in southeast and eastern Mexico, the western Gulf, and along the Texas coast should keep up to date with the progress of Alex. Continue to check back with AccuWeather.com as details of Alex's exact track become clearer.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/33279/alex-to-keep-strengthening-ove.asp?partner=accuweather

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:36 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.


THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST ON TUESDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN



ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 91.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.1N 92.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.3N 92.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 95.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALEX HAS BECOME A LITTLE DISTORTED
THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 66 KT...SFMR VALUES OF 51 KT...AND A DECREASE IN PRESSURE
TO 989 MB. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 50 KT.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD
BACK IN SLIGHTLY AND STEER ALEX MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD
HELP DETERMINE WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR MAKES MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD. THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.


SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALEX...ALTHOUGH THIS
HAS NOT PREVENTED THE STORM FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO ABATE BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD THEN ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING
. THE STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 91.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.1N 92.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.3N 92.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 23.5N 94.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 24.3N 95.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 97.7W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:04 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
WTNT41 KNHC 282037
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT THE INTENSITY OF ALEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 990 MB...UP JUST A BIT FROM
THIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ALEX IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND
ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRY AIR
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE LIKELY BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX TODAY. ALSO...SINCE ALEX HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE
SHALLOW SHELF WATERS WEST OF THE YUCATAN ALL DAY...SOME UPWELLING
OF COOL WATER COULD BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.

ONCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND ALEX MOVES TOWARD A
WARM EDDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE THE STRONGEST OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS. ALSO...ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST...BUT NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST
LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
330 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MOVES EAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALEX. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
SOUTHWARD AND FASTER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BUT NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 20.5N 91.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 92.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 22.9N 93.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 23.8N 95.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 99.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR


A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A NORTH-NORTWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALEX.


TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT CAYO
ARCAS...LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX...
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AND
A GUST OF 45 MPH...73 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN
VERACRUZ OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:54 pm
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

A 0525Z AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT FOUND TWO PEAK 925 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT LOCATED ABOUT 20 AND 45 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS ALONG THAT LEG WERE
AROUND 57 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB. SINCE THAT
RECON FLIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SMALL DEVELOPING EYE HAS ALSO INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR
JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0114Z SSMIS AND 0243Z AMSU OVERPASSES INDICATED
A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL RECON CENTER
POSITION. THIS INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED
INNER CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
GIVEN THE VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS THAT
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 21.7N 91.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 24.8N 95.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 25.3N 97.4W 85 KT...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST
72HR VT 02/0600Z 26.0N 100.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0600Z 27.5N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...



SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST. ALEX IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION AT CAYO ARENAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 68 MPH...109 KM/HR.


THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS
.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:03 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Blue I have NO clue how to read these things so could you just give us a quick "this storm is now heading towards......" type of thing...

I am really worried about you guys and want to keep up to date but I simply don't have the time right now to learn how to read the above reports..

Many thanks and please stay safe!

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Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:08 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
000
FXUS64 KHGX 291214
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
714 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.MARINE...
SCA EXPANDED AND EXTENDED. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS ALEX MOVES NORTH TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE BY TONIGHT AND HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
(ASSUMING ALEX INTENSIFIES AS EXPECTED) THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A
TIGHT GRADIENT OF WINDS TO THE NNE OF ALEX AND THE HIGH OVER
LOUISIANA. THE PERSISTENT FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS AND THE ALREADY LONG
PERIOD 8 SECOND SWELL 3-5 FEET WILL AMPLIFY AND BY THURSDAY MORNING
EXPECT TO HAVE SEEN 11-14 FT OVER THE FAR COASTAL WATERS. THE SWELL
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD THREAT AND HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR 3.3 TO 4.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ON
BOLIVAR AND THE STRETCH FROM FREEPORT SW. TIDES WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN FRIDAY AS ECMWF PUCKERS WINDS BACK UP LATE SAT AND GIVEN ITS
RECENT PERFORMANCE AM FOLLOWING IT IN THE LATER PERIODS. MAY BE
GETTING INTO BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SW
COASTAL WATERS.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE BLANKET VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR CXO
SOUTHWARD. WRK/NAM INDICATE THAT THIS MORNING HAS A GREATER
PROBABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA AT IAH/HOU SOUTHWARD THEN AGAIN TONIGHT
AFTER 05Z. MODEL PW OF 2.4-2.7" ARE TROUBLING TONIGHT AND THESE
LATER PERIODS MAY NEED A MORE HEAVY HANDED APPROACH TO VISBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

DISCUSSION...
ALEX REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS REGARDING THE FCST FOR SE TX FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS WE ALREADY HAVE (YESTERDAY) WE SHOULD CON-
TINUE TO SEE DEEP TROPICAL AIR MOVE ONSHORE TO HELP FUEL THE SCT
TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. AS TS ALEX INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES SLOWLY NNEWD THE PCPN SHOULD COME TO A HEAD THESE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
. OFFICIAL TRACK HAS A
LATE WEDS/EARLY THURS LANDFALL INTO THE UPPER REACHES OF THE NRN
MEXICO COAST. ITS REMNANTS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE TX BIG
BEND AREA AND THIS TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP THE DEEP ONSHORE WINDS
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA (IF THE ECMWF IS TO BE-
LIEVED) JUST BEFORE THE WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMALS FOR THE WEEK. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 91 75 89 / 50 30 50 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 78 89 76 88 / 50 40 60 50 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 89 81 88 / 60 50 60 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

000
FXUS64 KBRO 291005
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY/...METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE 36-HOUR PERIOD...
AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AND APPROACHES
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DISCUSSED THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO CRP...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS PRODUCT FOR
NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...LATEST NHC REASONING KEPT MUCH OF THE CURRENT ALEX
SITUATION INTACT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE EMPHASIZED FOR THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF
ON FRIDAY AND LATER. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT IN
THE FOREFRONT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST JUST YET...BUT FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BE ADDED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY. SOME OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX MAY AFFECT THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT MORE SO TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT WILL OCCUR IN ANY CONVECTION...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. A STEADY
DETERIORATION OF MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AND
APPROACHES THE EXTREME NORTH COAST OF MEXICO AND LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

7 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ALEX MOVES FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF
ALEX.

&&

000
FXUS64 KCRP 291150 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED
WITH THE CONVECTION. WILL START OFF ANY MORNING CONVECTION WITH
TEMPO SHOWERS (COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BUT THAT WILL MAINLY
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON). TEMPO THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS WITH THE CONVECTION. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AFTER 00Z...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AGAIN AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW...WILL JUST GO WITH THE VCSH AREA-WIDE
AND LATER TAF UPDATES WILL HAVE TO HANDLE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE IN KLRD FOR THE EVENING HOURS WHERE DID INCLUDE
PROB30 FOR THUNDER BEFORE 07Z. FINALLY...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN TO EASTERN TAFS AOA 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
NHC FORECAST TRACK OF ALEX AND QPF GUIDANCE FROM HPC...AS WELL AS
ISC COLLABORATION. RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AS ALEX MOVES NORTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ALREADY
EAST OF KBRO AND MOVING NORTHWARD. ALSO...06Z SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS
NEAR 2.3 INCHES. THINK THAT ALEX TOO FAR SOUTHEAST NOW AND NOT
STRONG ENOUGH YET TO BRING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IT...SO WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS EASTERN AREAS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED POPS INLAND AREAS WITH OBVIOUSLY HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EAST. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WILL BECOME WINDY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND BREEZY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS. ON A FINAL NOTE...EXPECT SLIGHT DELAYS
IN PRODUCT ISSUANCE`S.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WINDS AND SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AND SO WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED KBRO`S SEA FORECAST WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
ALEX`S POSITION AND LIKELY INTENSIFICATION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SEAS. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEPT A SIMILAR TRACK AS BEFORE WITH ALEX
MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS... CLOUDS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CWA...AS WELL AS
CONTINUED THE COOLING TEMPERATURE TREND...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS ALEX CONTINUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH EVEN AFTER ALEX IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONLY SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AFTER ALEX PASSES. RESIDENTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX AS
THE EXACT INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNCLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 79 85 76 85 / 60 50 70 90 80
VICTORIA 93 76 88 76 86 / 60 40 70 80 80
LAREDO 98 80 92 78 87 / 40 30 50 90 80
ALICE 94 78 86 75 85 / 60 50 60 90 80
ROCKPORT 92 82 87 81 84 / 60 40 70 90 80
COTULLA 98 76 94 74 85 / 40 30 40 80 80
KINGSVILLE 96 80 88 78 85 / 60 50 70 90 80
NAVY CORPUS 88 81 85 81 85 / 60 50 70 90 80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...
CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...WEBB.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND
WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND
WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:36 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Here ya go, L, from my local paper this am. Looks like we will dodge the bullet but will have heavy rain. This means flooding for us. GAH!

Alex likely to intensify into season's first hurricane today
Tropical Storm Alex is nearly a hurricane this morning, with 70 mph winds, and there are an increased number of thunderstorms associated with the system. These can be seen in a water vapor image from earlier this morning:

Alex should continue to strengthen over warm waters and amidst a favorable atmosphere.

The track models have become tightly clustered this morning around a landfall somewhere south of the Texas-Mexico border very late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a bit north of many of these models due to the fact that forecasters haven't yet seen the hard left turn — although there are subtle indications it is coming — being predicted by the models.

The consistency of the computer forecasts gives meteorologists confidence that such a turn is coming and Alex will likely, although not certainly, come ashore in northern Mexico. Track forecasts two days before landfall typically have an average error of slightly less than 100 miles.

Some readers are looking at model plots like the one above and asking why certain models show the storm heading to Houston. I will not get into a full discussion of models now, but the CLP5 (clipper 5) is not a very good model (in fact it not really is a model of all, but a blend of persistence and climatology), and in the case of the LBAR, forecasters have reason to believe it is not handling Alex very well.

In other words have confidence that Alex is not coming to Houston. :banana :elephant :brockoli

The furthest north of the most reliable set of models is the HWRF (black line labeled HWFI above), which brings Alex into southern Texas. But the HWRF is a newer model and still has some issues.

HOW STRONG?

The official forecast calls for Alex to come ashore as a 100-mph hurricane, and there's about a 10 percent chance it could be a category-3 major hurricane at landfall.

Alex should strengthen today, and probably will continue doing so up until landfall in less than two days time.

There is low confidence in this forecast, however, as there is in most intensity forecasts. It's simply difficult to predict changes in storm strength and the science is still developing.

Alex is large enough that, if it does intensify into a category 2 hurricane, could produce a surge as high as 9 or 10 feet to its immediate north. For now those kinds of surges are not forecast, but I raise it as a cautionary possibility.

The bottom line is that residents in Corpus Christi, and especially closer to the border, need to watch Alex closely for signs of intensification.

LOCAL EFFECTS?

I asked Chris Hebert, the lead hurricane forecaster at ImpactWeather, to give me an overview this morning of what kind of weather the greater Houston area might expect if the present forecast for Alex holds. Here's his reply:

Even though the center of Alex is currently forecast to make landfall across northeast Mexico on Thursday, all of coastal Texas and even Louisiana will feel its effects well into the 4th of July weekend. Alex is a large storm with a tremendous moisture envelope.

Its counter-clockwise circulation will drive that moisture into the Texas and Louisiana coast on Thursday as the center moves ashore well to our south.

This surge in moisture off the Gulf will interact with a weak frontal boundary dipping down to near the Gulf Coast to produce widespread heavy thunderstorms across coastal counties of Texas and coastal parishes of Louisiana on Thursday and Friday in particular.

It's possible that rainfall amounts could be quite heavy along the northwest Gulf Coast, perhaps as much as 5-10 inches in some areas, though general rainfall amounts will probably be closer to 3-6 inches. :shock:

And that's with the center Alex moving ashore south of Texas. If Alex was to move inland along the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, rainfall amounts could be higher across southeast Texas.

On the beaches, large waves produced by Alex will impact the Texas coast starting on Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Friday. Heavy surf could make for dangerous swimming conditions into the 4th of July weekend.

On Saturday, the heavy rainfall threat will be diminishing somewhat, though chances of rain will still be high. By the 4th of July, the deep tropical flow will continue, but without the enhancement of the frontal boundary. Expect mainly afternoon thunderstorms to help cool temperatures a bit.


So there you go. :heart

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2010/06/alex_likely_to_intensify_into_seasons_first_hurric.html

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Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:42 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
Awe now that I understand thank you muchly :roflmao

Glad you don't have to bug out just watch those rains, let's hope they are NOT filled with Oil, I hope what is happening in Louisana does NOT happen to you :heart

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Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:44 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Alex
First, let me humbly apologize for sounding so relieved!

He's turning FINALLY! Folks in Brownsville, Corpus and Northern Mexico keep ya powder dry!
:candle :heart

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...



SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:34 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex churns toward Mexican coast :candle

(CNN) -- Hurricane Alex churned through the western Gulf of Mexico overnight, slowly picking up steam as officials in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas made preparations.

The Category 1 storm, which became the first June hurricane to form on the Atlantic side of the United States since 1995, is expected to make landfall Wednesday evening.

At 5 a.m. ET, Alex was moving west-northwest at 7 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and was about 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and 175 miles east of La Pesca, Mexico.

President Obama issued a federal emergency declaration for Texas ahead of the expected arrival of Alex, the White House said Tuesday night. :heart

A hurricane warning was issued for the Gulf Coast from Baffin Bay, Texas, to La Cruz, Mexico. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions and tropical storm-force winds are expected in the forecast area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning was in place along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor.

The storm continued to move away from the massive BP oil catastrophe near the Louisiana coast in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but it already was complicating cleanup efforts. The storm created 12-foot waves on Tuesday and oil-skimming ships were sent back to shore, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

The rough seas may force crews to replace and reorganize booms meant to deter the oil from reaching shore, reported CNN's Ed Lavandera.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said that even though Florida may dodge a bullet with this storm, the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning.

"In Florida, we've had a lot of hurricanes a number of years ago, but we handled them very well," he told CNN's Campbell Brown. "The difference and the distinction that we face now is that we have a Gulf of Mexico that's full of oil. So our hope and our prayer is that we don't have a mixture of hurricanes with oil that could potentially damage the beautiful beaches of Florida. But if we do, we're prepared for it." :heart :clap

Brownsville, Texas, Mayor Pat Ahumada said his city was expecting to distribute 60,000 sandbags and provide shelter for roughly 2,000 families. Utility crews were put on standby to handle outages. At the same time, 90 buses had been provided by the state government in case an evacuation is required.

"I expect about 10 percent of residents to evacuate voluntarily, which already started yesterday," Ahumada said. "I see a steady flow of people going out, but no bottlenecks -- which is good."

"We're not taking it lightly," he said. "We're ready for a worst-case scenario." :heart

On Monday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry issued a disaster proclamation for 19 counties and ordered the pre-deployment of state resources. The governor's declaration allows the state to initiate necessary preparedness efforts, such as pre-deploying resources to ensure local communities are ready to respond to disasters.

The governor's order puts up to 2,500 National Guard personnel, eight UH-60 helicopters and three C-130 aircraft on standby for rapid deployment as needed, Perry's office said in a statement.


http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/30/hurricane.alex/index.html?hpt=T1

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:25 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Alex
And here we go. Reports of a possible tornado on the ground near Corpus Christi. Tornado watches s/b posted for us later this afternoon.

Winds picking up here - about 20 mph - not bad.

Rain is spitting but should pick up later this evening. What is strange is that the storms are moving East to West. Normally ours move West to East or North to South.

Had the most spectacular sunset last night - all purples and burnt orange. God does love Texas, right?

The sunrise this morning was red, pink and purple. "Red sky at morning, sailor take warning!"

Link below is the current map from Intellicast. Note the blob that ate Houston!


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USTX0617&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA

Hurricane Alex bearing down on Texas & Mexico
Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jun. 30, 2010 12:28 pm ET
ATLANTIC

Alex was upgraded to the season's first hurricane as of 10 pm CDT Tuesday.

As of 10am CDT this morning the center of Alex was located 190 miles to the southeast of Brownsville, Texas and 145 miles to the east of La Pesca, Mexico.

Alex has held steady this morning with top winds of 80 mph.

Additional strengthening is forecast today as the hurricane moves over the warm water in the western Gulf of Mexico. Atmospheric conditions also favor strengthening with very little wind shear and excellent outflow due to a large ridge of high pressure over the cyclone.

It is still possible for Alex to achieve category two status before landfall tonight.

Hurricane Alex slowed last evening and even stalled for a period overnight. Since then it has maintained a movement off to the west-northwest at 7 mph.

On its current path Alex should make landfall Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning south of the Rio Grande River in northeast Mexico.

Hurricane warnings are now in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas south to La Cruz, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect north of the hurricane warning from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor and south of the hurricane warning from La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.

Rain bands and squalls from Alex will continue spiraling on shore along the Gulf coast from Louisiana through Texas today. In these bands isolated tornadoes will be possible anywhere within 50 to 100 miles of the southeast Texas Coast.

The biggest concern with Alex in the United States is heavy rain that brings the potential of flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 4 inches or more are likely across much of south and southeast Texas. Locally 12 inches or more will fall over South Texas.

Another area with a heavy rain threat is along the Louisiana and northeast Texas coast. Rainfall there could total 2 to 4 inches through Thursday.

A water rise of 2 to 5 feet is possible from the landfall point in northeast Mexico through the southern Texas coast.

Once Alex moves inland Thursday the winds should diminish quickly, but the heavy rainfall should continue in northern Mexico and southern Texas. Heavy rain could fall in those areas through at least Friday.

It remains quiet over the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

EASTERN PACIFIC

No tropical cyclones are expected to form in the next few days.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:11 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Alex
We've been very fortunate here. We've had just the right amount of rain at the right time. Nothing heavy and torrential just typical tropical showers. You can almost hear the ground and plants go ahhhhh!

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/01/hurricane.alex/index.html?hpt=T1

Hurricane Alex kills at least 1 in Mexico
By the CNN Wire Staff
July 1, 2010 8:29 a.m. EDT

South Padre Island, Texas (CNN) -- Heavy rains pelting northeastern Mexico left at least one person dead and thousands more in shelters as Hurricane Alex moved inland, Mexican emergency officials said early Thursday.

A contractor in Monterrey died when a wall fell on him as a result of the rain, Carlos Eduardo Aguilar of Nuevo Leon's Civil Protection agency said. CNN-affiliate Televisa reported that at least three other people died when a wall collapsed on them in Acapulco, on the country's Pacific coast. :candle

Alex made landfall along the northeast Mexican coastline late Wednesday as a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported. Forecasters downgraded the storm to a Category 1 hurricane early Thursday morning and said it would continue to weaken as it moved inland.

The center reported at 5 a.m. ET that Alex was weakening, but still a Category 1 hurricane, moving west at 12 mph with 80 mph maximum sustained winds. Residents on both sides of the border braced for additional flooding and tornadoes.

Rivers and creeks were already well above their normal levels Wednesday. Rescuers saved a young man from rushing waters, Nuevo Leon state officials said. Officials closed schools across the state Thursday as they braced for floods.

Heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas with mountainous terrain, the National Hurricane Center said.

Power outages were reported throughout the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, where shelters were housing more than 5,200 people Thursday morning, Salvador Treviño Salinas of the state's Civil Protection agency said.

At least 1,500 people were in shelters in the city of Matamoros -- located across the border from Brownsville, Texas -- where flash floods inundated at least 48 neighborhoods after more than 14 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, he said.

The storm also affected other Mexican states Wednesday. In Guadalajara, Jalisco, the water reached more than three feet in some streets, Televisa reported. Heavy rains from Alex were also expected to hit the Mexican states of Veracruz, Nuevo Leon, Coahuila, San Luis Potosi and Zacatecas Thursday.

In Brownsville, Texas, about 40 streets had flooded by early Thursday morning, Assistant City Manager Jeff Johnston said.

Officials predict that the city could see up to 12 inches of rain from the storm, he said -- a significant amount, but less than originally feared.

"We're keeping a very close eye on the rain," he said. "Brownsville is a very flat city...When we get a significat amount of rain in a short period of time, it's very difficult to move that water out of the city fast."

At least 1,000 people in southern Texas were taking shelter in evacuation centers as Alex's winds and heavy rain squalls bore down on the coastline, officials in Cameron and Hidalgo counties reported.

Brownsville appeared to be taking the brunt of Alex's outer bands Wednesday after as many as six tornadoes were reported in the area and about 4,000 customers lost power, officials said.

But by Thursday morning, all but 60 customers were back on the grid, Johnston said.

In Harlingen, just 30 miles north of Brownsville, wind gusts of up to 65 mph were reported hours before the storm's expected landfall.

No injuries were immediately reported from the twisters near Brownsville, but some damage was reported, including downed trees and power lines, weather and emergency management officials said.

Carol Rumsey was riding the storm out in her Los Fresnos, Texas, home, not far from Brownsville and about a half hour from the coast.

She told CNN Radio on Wednesday night that her house had an eerie feel as the storm approached.

"You board up your windows and it's like living in a dungeon," she said. "You can't hear anything, you can't see anything."

She said she had considered evacuating as the region was being pummeled by heavy rain and occasional gusts of wind, but said "this is the price you pay for living in paradise."

Meanwhile, authorities in South Padre Island closed the Queen Isabella Memorial Bridge -- which crosses to the popular vacation spot -- as a precaution ahead of the approaching Alex.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles, according to the hurricane center.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of Alex were affecting the entire Gulf Coast from Texas to Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Brownsville received more than 4 inches of rain by Wednesday afternoon, the weather service said.

Harlingen Assistant Fire Chief Cirilo Rodriguez said his region was expecting 7-10 inches of rain.

Coastal flood advisories have been issued for Louisiana and Mississippi. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the shore due to a prolonged strong southeasterly wind caused by the large counterclockwise circulation of the hurricane.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry said Wednesday that the state was prepared for the storm. The State Operations Center was fully activated, he said, and Texas was working with federal and local authorities to track the hurricane and the BP Gulf oil disaster.

President Barack Obama issued a federal emergency declaration for Texas ahead of Alex's expected arrival, the White House said Tuesday night.

After the hurricane made landfall around 9 p.m. CT (10 p.m. ET), forecasters from the National Hurricane Center changed the hurricane warning to a tropical storm warning for the coast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

A tropical storm warning issued earlier remained in place along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor.

A hurricane warning was in place for the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruza, Mexico.

The storm continued to move away from the massive BP oil catastrophe near the Louisiana coast in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but it already was complicating cleanup efforts.

Residual effects from the storm will last for at least four days, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said, and could prohibit skimming and burning of oil in the Gulf at least until Saturday or Sunday.

The storm created 12-foot waves Tuesday and oil-skimming ships were sent to shore from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

The rough seas may force crews to replace and reorganize booms meant to deter the oil from reaching shore, reported CNN's Ed Lavandera.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said that even though Florida may dodge any problems with this storm, the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning.

"In Florida, we've had a lot of hurricanes a number of years ago, but we handled them very well," he told CNN's Campbell Brown. "The difference and the distinction that we face now is that we have a Gulf of Mexico that's full of oil. So our hope and our prayer is that we don't have a mixture of hurricanes with oil that could potentially damage the beautiful beaches of Florida. But if we do, we're prepared for it."

Pat Ahumada, the mayor of Brownsville, said the city was expecting to distribute 60,000 sandbags and provide shelter for roughly 2,000 families. Utility crews were on standby to handle outages. At the same time, the state government provided 90 buses in case an evacuation is needed.

"I expect about 10 percent of residents to evacuate voluntarily, which already started yesterday," Ahumada said Tuesday. "I see a steady flow of people going out, but no bottlenecks -- which is good.

"We're not taking it lightly," he said. "We're ready for a worst-case scenario."

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:19 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Alex
And they may get more rain by the end of this week - Bonnie or no.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100706/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_tropical_weather_mexico

Mexican town evacuated amid fears dam will burst :shock:
By JORGE VARGAS, Associated Press Writer Jorge Vargas, Associated Press Writer
Tue Jul 6, 7:50 pm ET

NUEVO LAREDO, Mexico – About 18,000 people were evacuated Tuesday from a town in northern Mexico where authorities feared a dam would overflow from rains that accompanied Hurricane Alex.

Evacuees were taken to shelters in nearby towns and cities, Ciudad Anahuac Mayor Santos Garza Garcia said.

The Venustiano Carranza dam, about 70 kilometers (43 miles) away, reached capacity after days of heavy rains, including remnants of the hurricane, which slammed into Mexico's northern Gulf coast last week.

Garza said 12 floodgates had been opened but authorities were unable to open 17 others because of electrical failures. He said the dam was releasing 600 cubic meters per second into the Salado River, a tributary of the Rio Grande, but could overflow soon.

"The situation is very critical," Garza said at a news conference.

Authorities said they were being careful about releasing water from dams into already swollen rivers.

Sally Spener, public affairs officer for the International Boundary and Water Commission — which operates the Amistad dam — said it had tried to limit releases Monday "so that we would not exacerbate the flooding."

North of Ciudad Anahuac in Texas, officials in Laredo were preparing to close one of its international bridges before the Rio Grande crested late Wednesday or Thursday.

Bridge One, which links downtown Laredo to Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, was expected to close Wednesday night before the river crested at an expected 33 feet.

But Laredo spokeswoman Xochitl Mora said the span could close sooner because officials worried that pressure from the water flow could damage the bridge. The other three bridges linking the cities would remain open.

Hurricane Alex caused severe flooding in northeastern Mexico and swelled several rivers that feed into the dam. It has continued raining in the region.

Officials were also evacuating 2,000 people near the swollen Rio Escondido in the region, Piedras Negras Mayor Jose Manuel Maldonado said.

At least 12 people were killed last week during the storm, said Gov. Rodrigo Medina of Nuevo Leon state, where Ciudad Anahuac is located. Three people are missing.

Some 130,000 people were without water, and that did not count some communities in mountainous regions that were cut off, Medina de la Cruz told Televisa network. He appealed for helicopters to help reach isolated communities with water and other supplies.

Alex caused the most damage in Nuevo Leon, though it was down to tropical storm force by the time it hit the inland state.

The key business city of Monterrey saw major streets turned to rampaging rivers that gashed ravines through the pavement down to sewage lines and buried vehicles window deep in rocks and sand.

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Wed Jul 07, 2010 7:08 am
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