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 Tropical Storm Fiona 
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Post Tropical Storm Fiona
000
WTNT43 KNHC 011441
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB WIND OF 58 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES OF
45-50 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB. THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR
THE 8 AM INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SINCE THAT TIME... THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION
. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR...ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOST ACTUALLY MAKE FIONA
A HURRICANE.
BY LATE TOMORROW...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS DUE PRIMARILY TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM
EARL. THIS PATTERN CAUSES FIONA TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN 3 OR 4
DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW A MOTION OF ABOUT 305/15 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO DUE TO FIONA MOVING AROUND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE STARTS TO BECOME RATHER DIVERGENT AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FIONA. IF THE
STORM WEAKENS QUICKLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET
CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF EARL. HOWEVER...IF FIONA
STAYS A MORE COHERENT VORTEX...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
TO GET TRAPPED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR FORECAST AT THE END...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
FASTER TRACK SCENARIO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS...AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN STURGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM
.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
snip

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:27 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Fiona
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:17 pm
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Fiona
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...FIONA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA.

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:45 am
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