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| Tropical Storm Fiona http://www.thegoldenthread.info/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=2399 |
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| Author: | Bluebonnet [ Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Tropical Storm Fiona |
000 WTNT43 KNHC 011441 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB WIND OF 58 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES OF 45-50 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB. THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE 8 AM INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SINCE THAT TIME... THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOST ACTUALLY MAKE FIONA A HURRICANE. BY LATE TOMORROW...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS DUE PRIMARILY TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM EARL. THIS PATTERN CAUSES FIONA TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW A MOTION OF ABOUT 305/15 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO DUE TO FIONA MOVING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE STARTS TO BECOME RATHER DIVERGENT AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FIONA. IF THE STORM WEAKENS QUICKLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF EARL. HOWEVER...IF FIONA STAYS A MORE COHERENT VORTEX...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO GET TRAPPED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AT THE END...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER TRACK SCENARIO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STURGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS snip $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
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| Author: | Bluebonnet [ Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tropical Storm Fiona |
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. |
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| Author: | Bluebonnet [ Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tropical Storm Fiona |
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010 ...FIONA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. |
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