PJ - get ready for local media to hype this for all it is worth.
I suggest you read Accuweather
Storm2K http://tinyurl.com/3scrdom
and
The Tropical Prediction Centerhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The local yokels WILL hype this for all it is worth!
Keep safe!By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Jun 27, 2011; 11:15 AM
AccuWeather.com meteorologists continue to watch the Bay of Campeche for development, as it appears concerns for a tropical system may come to pass at midweek.
There is a chance of heavy rain and locally gusty winds affecting northeastern Mexico and part of South Texas.
The combination of an old, stalled frontal boundary, a broad area of low pressure and interaction of a tropical wave should be enough to get things spinning just a bit in the southwest Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week.
This region, known as the Bay of Campeche, is a favored spots for development, due to the curvature of the coastline that tends to help give the lower atmosphere a little extra spin.
According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The broad area of low pressure will have some chance for slow development later on Tuesday through Wednesday."
An area of high pressure along the northern Gulf Coast is much weaker, compared to much of the spring. However, further weakening or not will determine how far north this area of disturbed weather is able to move late in the week.
The general feeling in the office is that this feature will tend to drift more west, rather than north, so that much of the effects (rain and gusty thunderstorms) will roll into Mexico. While a drought has hit this area hard, enough rain could fall to cause flash flooding, mudslides and washouts.
snip
Overall, a broad flow of tropical moisture will be present most days through at least the middle of July, bringing a mosaic of needed downpours. However, it is possible that in some cases the pattern could lead to quick, near-shore development of a tropical system with little notice.
All it will take is for the wind shear to drop off for a couple of days in the neighborhood of where one of these systems wanders through.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/51634/watching-the-bay-of-campeche-f.asp