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TS Debby - will she or won't she? http://www.thegoldenthread.info/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=3927 |
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Author: | Bluebonnet [ Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:22 am ] |
Post subject: | TS Debby - will she or won't she? |
Debby's Dilemma Next It now looks likely we'll have at least a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico sometime this weekend. As far as Debby's future path and intensity, the forecast is far from certain. Interests along the entire U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor closely the progress of this "future Debby." Read more here to see the two scenarios: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/debby-gulf-outlook-20120621 Been watching the computer models for a week now predicting this. Sigh! National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours. Two scenarios in a nutshell: 1. Florida takes a hit as a tropical storm due to sag in jet stream. 2. She misses jet stream, wanders and around and comes in either Houston/Galveston or Northern Mexico. If this scenario plays out she could be at least a Cat 1 hurricane. Everyone on the Gulf Coast of the US needs to closely monitor this storm this weekend. It is still located (they think) between the Yucatan Penninsula and Cuba. A hurricane hunter plane is one its way. Stay tuned... |
Author: | Bluebonnet [ Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:32 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: TS Debby - will she or won't she? |
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN |
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