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 Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, may track toward Gulf 
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Post Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, may track toward Gulf
A hurricane hunter airplane flying into Tropical Depression Five has found 50-mph winds, which are above tropical storm strength. And so Ernesto, the season’s fifth named storm, has formed

Ernesto faces some factors that could check significant intensification during the next day or two, notably including some wind shear and dry air.

However, as the storm crosses into the Caribbean Sea sometime tomorrow, it could find more favorable atmospheric conditions. Therefore it’s possible Ernesto could become a hurricane sometime this weekend or early next week. As always, forecasting intensity changes is challenging, and forecast models are spread all over the place with how strong (or not) Ernesto will become.

The big question is where the storm will go. As it’s presently riding along the southern boundary of a very large high pressure system forecast models are in good agreement for the next several days. Most bring the storm into the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.

snip

See forecast maps and read more here: http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/tropical-storm-ernesto-forms-may-track-toward-gulf/

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Thu Aug 02, 2012 3:23 pm
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, may track toward Gulf
Ernesto Chugs Westward; Takes Aim At Caribbean
By Samantha Kramer, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Aug 2, 2012; 8:51 PM ET

Tropical Storm Ernesto, despite a ragged appearance, continues to move westward, impacting the Windward Islands and on a path for the Caribbean over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will produce winds in excess of 40 mph, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet and heavy, flooding rains as it approaches the Windward Islands into the first part of the weekend. A wind gust of 63 mph has been measured in St. Lucia this morning as Ernesto moved nearby.

According to Meteorologist Andy Mussoline, "Strong wind shear, an inhibitor of tropical development, will limit the potential for rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. However, the wind shear is expected to weaken during the weekend, where the opportunity for further strengthening is possible."

Tropical Storm Ernesto will travel on a nearly due west path through the weekend, taking it across the Windward Islands and through the Caribbean Sea.

By the first part of next week, the system could have direct impacts anywhere in the vicinity from Honduras to Belize to the western tip of Cuba.

Looking at impacts to the United States, the system, potentially a tropical storm or greater by then, could move into southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico during the latter part of next week.

snip

See the radar/maps and read more here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-depression-five-forms/68805

According to some hurricane forums I read, there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to:

1. Potential strength - Ernesto could/may get his act together and become a major hurricane by mid-week;

2. Possible impact to the US - the models are still all over the place as it is fairly early in the cycle. Impacts range from deep South Texas to the Florida panhandle.

Stay tuned...

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:42 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, may track toward Gulf
000
WTNT65 KNHC 041138
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:49 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, may track toward Gulf
Ernesto Chugs Westward; Takes Aim At Caribbean

By Samantha Kramer, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Aug 4, 2012; 7:10 AM ET

Tropical Storm Ernesto, despite a ragged appearance, continues to move westward through the eastern Caribbean at a fairly fast pace.

After bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles Friday, the storm has shifted east of the Islands.

The storm has maintained some intensity through the overnight hours as the shear dropped off a bit.

According to Meteorologist Andy Mussoline, "Strong wind shear, an inhibitor of tropical development, will limit the potential for rapid strengthening over the next day or so. However, the wind shear is expected to weaken throughout the course of the weekend, where the opportunity for further strengthening is possible."

Tropical Storm Ernesto will travel on a nearly due west path through this weekend, taking it through the Caribbean Sea.

Ernesto is expected to strengthen a bit while bringing some heavier rain bands this weekend across the northern Caribbean Islands.

By the first part of next week, the system could have direct impacts anywhere in the vicinity from Honduras to Belize to the western tip of Cuba.

Looking at impacts to the United States, the system, potentially a tropical storm or greater by then, could move into southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico during the latter part of next week.

snip

See satellite image/maps and read more here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-depression-five-forms/68805

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:55 am
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