Debby's Dilemma
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It now looks likely we'll have at least a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico sometime this weekend.

As far as Debby's future path and intensity, the forecast is far from certain. Interests along the entire U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor closely the progress of this "future Debby."

Read more here to see the two scenarios:

Been watching the computer models for a week now predicting this. Sigh!

National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours.

Two scenarios in a nutshell:

1. Florida takes a hit as a tropical storm due to sag in jet stream.

2. She misses jet stream, wanders and around and comes in either Houston/Galveston or Northern Mexico. If this scenario plays out she could be at least a Cat 1 hurricane.

Everyone on the Gulf Coast of the US needs to closely monitor this storm this weekend. It is still located (they think) between the Yucatan Penninsula and Cuba.

A hurricane hunter plane is one its way.

Stay tuned...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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