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 Tropics Heating Up - Late August 
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Post Tropics Heating Up - Late August
I will just post a snippet from our local paper:

snip

TROPICS

The tropics are a poppin’.

Here’s a map of activity from the National Hurricane Center:


Tropical activity at 7 a.m. CT. (National Hurricane Center)

Let’s start with Gordon. It has weakened into a tropical storm, and as has been the case during its entire lifetime, the storm has not posed a threat to land. This is the kind of hurricane we like.

Next up, there’s that orange blob off the Mexico coast. This is Invest 95L, and it’s partly associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene, which moved into Mexico over the weekend. The system is not well organized at present but conditions are favorable for some development. A reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the storm later today.


Enhanced color image of Invest 95L. (National Hurricane Center)

Most of the limited model guidance suggests this system will produce heavy rains over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, and eventually move west back into Mexico. However, if the system drifts a bit north before moving into Mexico it could trigger some showers over the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

This is one of the “other” factors I referred to above with respect to rain chances this week in Houston.

Let’s next talk about Invest 94L, which the National Hurricane Center gives an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days. There was some chatter among weather geeks yesterday because one run of the GFS model developed this storm into a large hurricane, and eventually brought it to the upper Texas coast next week. :nono

But that’s one model run. And a very long-range one at that. So it’s not time to fret.

Let’s start with what we do know about this storm. It’s moving rapidly west toward the Caribbean Sea at 20 to 25 mph, and conditions are favorable for further development today. Over the next five days most forecast models bring this system into the northeast Caribbean:


Track model forecasts for Invest 95L. (NCAR)

There is fairly high confidence in this track.

After that point some of the long-range model guidance brings the storm toward Florida as anything from a weak system to a hurricane. But this point anything is possible, including a more due west track through the Caribbean that brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico a week from now.

It’s late August, so it’s definitely worth watching.

Finally, there’s another tropical wave that’s moved off the African coast and it is given a 20 percent chance of developing by the National Hurricane Center during the next two days. As it moves west across the Atlantic this is just another system to watch as it may eventually pose a threat to land.

snip

See maps and read more here: http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/weekly-weather-pleasant-but-deep-in-the-tropics-much-lurks/

And, yes, we did get a cool front this morning! There is a tiny taste of Fall in the air on my porch! We have much drier air and a lovely breeze from the South.

All-in-all, we have not had a bad summer - not like last year, anyway.

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:48 am
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Location: Friendswood, TX
Post Re: Tropics Heating Up - Late August
Tropical Depression Nine forms, aimed toward Caribbean Sea

The National Hurricane Center upgraded a system in the central Atlantic Ocean to Tropical Depression Nine this morning.

After an aircraft investigates the storm this afternoon it will probably become Tropical Storm Isaac within the next day or so, and reach the western Caribbean Sea by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

snip

The bottom line is that the storm, likely soon to be Isaac, poses a threat to the Caribbean islands this weekend, and likely Florida next week between Tuesday and Thursday. At this time it appears unlikely that it will move into the western Gulf of Mexico and track toward Texas.

Read more here: http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/tropical-depression-nine-forms-aimed-toward-caribbean-sea/

_________________
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Tue Aug 21, 2012 7:43 am
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