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 Hurricane Isaac 
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Post Hurricane Isaac
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

This system remains a modest tropical storm with 45-mph winds as it nears the Leeward Islands and is soon to enter the Caribbean Sea.

That being said wind shear values are falling around the cyclone, and this should provide a favorable environment for some strengthening, forecasters say. As you can see in the image below, sea surface temperatures in the northern Caribbean Sea between the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola are well above the 26.5-degree (Celsius) threshold needed for storm intensification.

The biggest factor in Isaac’s development will be how much it interacts with the large Caribbean islands, including Hispaniola and Cuba.

The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast track brings the storm over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, which should inhibit strengthening beyond a modest hurricane.

As shown below, most of the major models are in agreement in bringing Isaac along this kind of path and eventually toward South Florida by late Sunday or Monday.

The European Model is the only significant outlier, and it does not forecast Isaac to find a weakness in the high pressure ridge until it passes Cuba. This model brings Isaac into the central Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane by Thursday or Friday of next week.

Typically this would be dismissed as an outlier, but during the last few years the European model has been among the, or perhaps the best model for hurricane tracks. So it cannot be dismissed entirely.

snip

See maps and read more here: http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/isaac-and-likely-soon-joyce-lighting-up-the-tropics/

Things could get very interesting at the Republican Convention in Tampa next week. There were a lot of folks who were concerned about holding the convention in Tampa during prime hurricane season.

We'll see...

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:21 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac lashes Haiti; parts of Florida under hurricane warning
By the CNN Wire Staff

updated 9:15 AM EDT, Sat August 25, 2012

Port-au-Prince, Haiti (CNN) -- Gale-force winds and pelting rain from Tropical Storm Isaac fell on Haiti early Saturday as daylight revealed early signs of damage on a tiny nation still recovering from a devastating earthquake.

The massive 2010 quake left hundreds of thousands of Haitians in tent cities, forcing them to ride out Isaac in makeshift homes.

Storm damage was apparent in the cities of Port-au-Prince and Jacmel early Saturday. There were no reports of fatalities, but inspection for damage was still under way as the sun rose.

As night turned to day in the capital, Haitian radio reported floods and mudslides.

In Jacmel, on the southern coast of Haiti, power was out, and heavy rain and strong winds persisted into the morning hours. Damage to trees and houses was visible, and there was little movement on the streets.

Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Keys.

As of 8 a.m. ET, Isaac -- with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph -- was 95 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, and moving at 14 mph, according to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

The center of Isaac will move near or over eastern Cuba Saturday, the center said, and near the north coast of Cuba by nightfall.

Strengthening is forecast one Isaac passes Cuba and is over open water again, and it will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday, the center said.

snip

Read more here: http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/25/us/tropical-storm-isaac/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

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Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:44 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Isaac
Florida Governor Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Tropical Storm Isaac

By SUZETTE LABOY 08/25/12 12:37 PM ET

MIAMI — Officials organized shelters and urged vacationers to leave the Florida Keys as Tropical Storm Isaac approached on Saturday, though preparations farther north focused on getting ready for the Republican National Convention.

Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency to make sure local and state agencies would be ready. The governor said during a media briefing that delegates were being told on how to stay safe during a storm, and officials were ready for storm surge, bridge closures and other problems that could arise during the convention. He also said he was in close communication with local, state and federal agencies, as well as convention officials.

"We are a hospitality state. We know how to take care of people and we want to ensure their safety," Scott said Saturday.

A hurricane warning had been issued for the Keys, though it was still a sunny day in Tampa. Forecast models show Isaac won't hit Tampa head-on, but the storm will still likely lash the city with rain and strong winds just as the convention ramps up. Protests were to start in full force on Sunday afternoon, and demonstrators have vowed that they will make their presence known rain or shine.

Isaac was blamed for at least three deaths after dousing flood-prone Haiti and was expected to scrape eastern Cuba on Saturday. It was forecast to hit the Keys late Sunday or early Monday, and it then could bring stormy conditions to Florida's west coast before moving to the Panhandle.

snip

Read more here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/25/florida-governor-declares_n_1830114.html

Note: If you are along the Gulf Coast in Alabama, Mississippi or Eastern Louisiana you need to pay special attention to this storm.

The "cone of uncertainty" has shifted westward towards the eastern Louisiana coast as of the 11:00 am CDT (12:00 noon EDT) model runs.

Be safe all and start your preps early.

If you are vacationing in these areas, you need to make preparations to leave now.

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Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:53 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Isaac
Just waiting for the 11:00 am EDT update from the National Hurricane Center.

The models have shifted Isaac west and the official track has shifted westward early this morning.

At 5:00 am, the storm was forecast to move into the Alabama/Mississippi coast - not Florida. Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been moved into Louisiana now.

New Orleans is getting a bit nervous as well they should.

Forecast maps show a possibility of tropical storm force winds in my area by Wednesday.

Sigh.

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Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:58 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Isaac
000
WTNT34 KNHC 261457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS DISCONTINUED
.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO JUST EAST OF MORGAN CITY...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.


snip

Read more here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/261457.shtml

Damn!

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Sun Aug 26, 2012 8:00 am
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Post Re: Tropical Storm Isaac
Eerie similarities: Isaac follows track of Katrina, evacuations ordered for coast
By the CNN Wire Staff

updated 8:51 AM EDT, Mon August 27, 2012

Tampa, Florida (CNN) -- Thousands in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama were being told early Monday to leave their Gulf Coast homes ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Isaac as forecasters warned it was gaining strength as it followed the same path Hurricane Katrina took seven years earlier.

The governors of the three states each declared an emergency, with Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley ordering mandatory evacuations to begin at 8 a.m. for residents who live along the coast and for those in some low-lying areas inland.

"I am urging everyone to take precautions now, monitor weather warnings, and be prepared for whatever Isaac may bring," Bentley said in a statement released Sunday.

A hurricane warning was issued for the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, from Morgan City, Louisiana, east to Destin, Florida, the National Hurricane Center said.

The tropical storm was expected to make landfall late Tuesday or Wednesday, coinciding with the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, though as a much weaker Category 1 hurricane, compared with 2005's monster storm.

Isaac's strength was holding steady Monday as it moved at 14 mph through the warm gulf waters, about 360 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, forecasters said. The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, according to a hurricane center advisory.

The storm was "getting a little better organized" as it moved over the Gulf of Mexico, the center said.

It appeared early Monday that the storm's ferocity would mostly bypass Florida's west coast and the Republican National Convention in Tampa, where the schedule was pushed back a day by organizers over concerns about the storm.

snip

Read more here: http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/27/us/tropical-storm-isaac/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

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Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:25 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Isaac
Hurricane Isaac rescue efforts begin for stranded Plaquemines Parish residents

Published: Wednesday, August 29, 2012, 6:43 AM Updated: Wednesday, August 29, 2012, 8:17 AM

By Benjamin Alexander-Bloch, The Times-Picayune

Some local residents with boats have started rescue efforts for Plaquemines Parish residents stranded by Hurricane Isaac. So far at least half a dozen people have been picked up, according to parish officials. Dozens of people on Plaquemines' east bank, south of St. Bernard Parish, reportedly are stranded, some in attics where they sought to escape flood waters that may have reached 5 to 9 feet in certain areas.

The parish levees on the east bank are about 8.5 feet high, and some estimates have storm surge at 13 feet. At daylight, the National Guard is expected to launch a larger rescue effort, coming into the east bank through St. Bernard. After the wind subsides, other water and air rescue efforts likely will launch. :evil

While federal levees in the area appear to be holding, problems in Plaquemines Parish are occurring in areas not protected by the federal system, which was revamped after Katrina.

Guy Laigast, director of the parish's emergency preparedness, says that an 18-mile stretch of the parish east bank back levees might be overtopped from Braithwaite to White Ditch and that some points might be seeing 110 miles per hour winds. There are many varying reports of wind speeds, generally ranging between 80 and 110 miles per hour.

snip

Parish officials have received calls from a woman at Willspoint who said she received 9 feet of water and is in her attic. There are reports that the Woodlawn fire station between Braithwaite and White Ditch, which received no water during Katrina, has received 5 feet.

That 18-mile stretch of parish levees averages about 8.5 feet in height and Army Corps of Engineers officials have forecasted that storm surge may be reaching 13 feet. Corps officials only are confirming reports that levee has been overtopped in two spots, in Braithwaite and then further south in an east bank area called Bel Air, river mile 65. Corps officials are saying that there are no confirmed reports of breaches, which suggest failures in levees.

snip

Read more here: http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2012/08/hurricane_isaac_rescue_efforts.html

:candle

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Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:42 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Isaac
How can these levies fail after Katrina, WTF??????

People should lose their jobs and pay for the losses, PERIOD

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Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:56 pm
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Post Re: Hurricane Isaac
These are not Federal levies, L, they are private levies.

They didn't fail - they are only 8 feet tall. Isaac came in with a 13 foot storm surge that overtopped them.

Think about a 13 foot wave repeatedly battering an 8 foot eathern berm. It doesn't take long for the levy (berm) to become soaked with rainwater. At that point, it can no longer deal with the wave battering and will fail (i.e., split apart).

At least this way, local officals can choose where the levy will fail rather than relying on Mother Nature to do so.

Image

As you can see in the image above, Plaquemines Parish is mostly marsh - not a lot of dry land here and not far above sea level, either.

Please don't misunderstand me, I feel very badly for these folks but at the same time I completely understand why the Parish officials decided to breach the levy.

It is just a sad, sad situation all the way around. Especially given the devastation this area received from Katrina and Gustav.

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The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - FDR


Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:10 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Isaac
Isaac claims fatality as thousands forced to evacuate
By Josh Levs and Chelsea J. Carter, CNN

updated 9:57 AM EDT, Thu August 30, 2012

(CNN) -- Authorities warned people in a handful of towns outside of New Orleans to get out early Thursday ahead of rising water brought on by hurricane-turned-tropical storm Isaac, which dumped more than 20 inches of rain in some areas.

The warning came as the storm claimed its first fatality. A tow truck driver attempting to clear debris on a road in Mississippi was struck by a falling tree, officials said. The incident took place at midnight, said Amanda Harris, deputy director of the Pearl River County Emergency Management office. :candle

The National Weather Service said it received reports of the fatality in Picayune, Mississippi.

On Louisiana's border with Mississippi, residents of Washington Parish were alerted that the Bogue Chitto River was expected to rise by 14 feet overnight.

To the southwest, in St. John Parish, National Guard troops looked for people stranded after thousands were forced to flee when a surge forced water over the banks of Lake Pontchartrain.

"What we're doing is we have got law enforcement and fire personnel who are going door-to-door to notify people," Tommy Thiebaud, the Washington Parish director of emergency services, told CNN early Thursday.

Meanwhile in Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans, 3,000 people remained in an area close to an 8-foot tall levee that waters were threatening, Gov. Bobby Jindal's office said.

About 100 people who had ignored an evacuation order were rescued Wednesday in a flooded part of the parish, officials said. On Thursday, authorities from the sheriff's office and National Guard "will begin looking house to house to make sure they got everyone," said Parish President Billy Nungesser.

"We didn't have time to panic," Rafael Delgadillo of Braithwaite, Louisiana, told CNN Thursday. He, his wife and daughter were rescued by a neighbor Wednesday. "We were in survivor mode," he said.

Nearly a million customers were without electricity across Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Utility companies reported more than 978,000 customers without power.

Water boiling advisories were being issued in a number of towns and cities along the Gulf Coast.

snip

Read more here: http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/30/us/weather-isaac/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

East Texas and I drove over the Bogue Chitto River last year on our way to DC.

P.S. - FYI it is pronounced Bo Ka Chee Ta.
;)

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Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:22 am
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Post Re: Hurricane Isaac
Isaac remnants dumping heavy rain across Missouri, Illinois

Updated at 10:30 a.m. ET: The remnants of Hurricane Isaac were grinding slowing northward early on Saturday with its center now deep into Missouri and the heavy rain stretching for hundreds of miles east into Illinois amid reports of tornadoes and high winds, meteorologists said.

Drought-stricken areas of Missouri and Illinois were easily absorbing the rain Friday and the system was expected to soak the region deep into Sunday, said Jayson Gosselin, meteorologist with the National Weather Service's St. Louis-area office.

"We have gotten pretty widespread light to moderate rain that has piled up," Gosselin said. "The rain is certainly going to help our drought situation up here." :clap

Most places in the area were reporting 1 to 3 inches of rain by late on Friday and were expected to see up to 5 inches of rain through Sunday, though some might see "upwards of 5, 6, 7 inches," Gosselin said.

A wide swath of central Illinois from west to east was expected to receive similar amounts of rain as the system slowly passes through the state, the weather service said.

snip

Read more here: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/01/13604521-isaac-remnants-dumping-heavy-rain-across-missouri-illinois?lite

Can't you just hear the Earth say, "Ahhhhhhh! Lovely, lovely rain!"

I remember last year, folks in my area were desperately praying for a tropical system to come over and relieve our drought.
:heart

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Sat Sep 01, 2012 8:29 am
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