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 Hurricane Season 2013 
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Post Hurricane Season 2013
Four groups predict very active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Posted by Jason Samenow on April 16, 2013 at 2:25 pm

The start of hurricane season is 6 weeks away, and four independent forecast outlets unanimously agree it will be a busy one.

Colorado State’s Bill Gray and protege Philip Klotzbach, the pioneers of seasonal hurricane forecasting, predict a blockbuster hurricane season, with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. (The 1981-2010 30-year averages are 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.)

“We anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño,” Klotzbach and Gray write in their outlook, released last week.

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“A wild season is on the way, and the ‘major hit drought’ on the U.S. coast should end,” meteorologist Joe Bastardi writes in the hurricane season outlook from WeatherBell, a private forecasting comapny.

Bastardi predicts 16 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

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Above average tropical activity in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is also predicted by researchers at N.C. State University and forecasters at TropicalStormRisk.com, a private company in the United Kingdom. Here are their specific forecasts:

Number of named storms: N.C. State: 13 to 17, TropicalStormRisk.com: 15

Number of hurricanes: N.C. State: 7-10, TropicalStormRisk.com: 7.5

Number of major hurricanes: N.C. State: 3-6, TropicalStormRisk.com: 3.4

Taking the average of all four of these forecasts together, we get 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Four other organizations have yet to release their outlooks: NOAA, the UK Met Office, Penn State and Florida State. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is scheduled to be released May 23. Last year, the UK Met Office, Penn State and Florida State released their outlooks in late May or early June.

snip

Read more here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/04/16/four-groups-predict-very-active-hurricane-season/

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Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:34 am
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