Re: Season's first named storm on tap?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX333 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF TSRA FROM AUS-CLL-DWH FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. BUT AS OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND BE SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SO HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RICH MOISTURE IS
GOING TO SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN QUICKLY EAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. POSES ISSUES WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HAVE TENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS AND EXT NERN MEXICO. SO EXPECT WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE DROPS
QUICKLY AND HAVE GONE WITH OR BELOW MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND.
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT THAT GFS IF PROGGING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH UNLESS TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND STAYS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK.
000
FXUS64 KBRO 242051
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE TX351 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
WHICH RESIDED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. ALL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS KEPT
NEAR MOS GUIDANCE. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE ISOLATED
SEABREEZE AND MARINE CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GULF
WATERS.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL SHOW HEIGHTS LOWERING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS THE 500MB RIDGE READJUSTS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WEAKER FLOW AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BUMP UP HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND
COUNTIES TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR HIGHS...LEADING TO
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
PWATS ANTICIPATED TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES.
WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODEL AND
NHC GUIDANCE SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND
FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
RANGING FROM THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT TO THE 12Z
ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A TROPICAL STORM INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY NO
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SHOWN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL BETTER
CONSENSUS ARISES.