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 Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza 
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Post Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
HK finds 2nd dead bird in week with H5N1 bird flu
The Associated Press

December 23, 2011, 9:22AM ET

HONG KONG

Hong Kong authorities say a second dead bird in a week has tested positive for a dangerous strain of bird flu, raising health concerns in the city.

The agricultural department said Friday that lab tests confirmed an Oriental magpie robin found dead on Dec. 17 was infected with H5N1 avian influenza.

On Wednesday, workers slaughtered more than 19,000 birds at a Hong Kong market and banned the import and sale of live poultry for three weeks after a chicken carcass tested positive for H5N1.

Read more here: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9RQ8T7O0.htm

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Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:37 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Bangladesh.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Bird flu: 3,000 fowls culled in Meherpur

Over 3,000 poultry were culled and 1,300 eggs damaged at a poultry farm in Meherpur following detection of bird flu on Monday night, livestock officials said.

Visiting other poultry farms in the area, the officials confirmed that the infection was limited to only one farm, Sajan Poultry, till Tuesday morning. They however alerted owners of the other farms there about bird flu, our Kushtia correspondent reports.

Tapaneswar Swami, district livestock officer of Meherpur, confirmed avian influenza (H1N5) in the district as scores of fowls died at Sajan Poultry at Keshabpara area in Meherpur town over the last few days.

Read more here: http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/latest_news.php?nid=34665

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Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:42 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Update on H5N1 avian influenza
Reported by MISS AMY LI, Scientific Officer, and DR ALICE WONG, Senior Medical Officer, Surveillance and Epidemiology Branch, CHP.

Hong Kong has raised the response level under the Government’s Preparedness Plan for Influenza Pandemic from Alert to Serious on December 20, 2011. This followed the confirmation of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in a chicken carcass sample taken from the Cheung Sha Wan Temporary Wholesale Poultry Market (Wholesale Poultry Market) on December 20, 2011. The Government is tracing the source of the chicken carcass and it is not certain at this stage whether the chicken came from local farm or was imported. All the poultry at the concerned market have been culled on the following day. The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) has worked with public and private hospitals to enhance the detection of suspected human cases. So far, no human cases have been detected in Hong Kong.

snip

CHP is carrying out medical surveillance of poultry wholesalers and workers in the Wholesale Poultry Market as well as local chicken farmers to follow up on their health condition. A telephone hotline has been set up to answer public enquires. The Hospital Authority (HA) and private hospitals were both alerted to report suspected human avian influenza cases to CHP. Imports of live poultry have been suspended for 21 days starting from December 21.

snip

Read more here: http://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/cdw_v8_26.pdf

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Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:14 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
RI remains global bird flu ‘hot spot’

Elly Burhaini Faizal, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Fri, 12/30/2011 10:51 PM

The number of bird flu infections has declined over the past few years, but Indonesia remains the virus’ “hot spot”, as backyard poultry farms remain the backbone in supplying meat for the population, a senior health official says.

Rita Kusriastuti, director of animal-borne infectious disease control at the Health Ministry, said on Thursday that low figures in bird flu infections did not necessarily mean the worst was over, as chickens kept by residents in backyard farms had potential risk factors for transmitting the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1).

“It’s not surprising that up to now we have had to stay alert on bird flu and even declare our country as a bird flu “hot spot”, as we haven’t so far managed to implement good husbandry systems for those chickens,” she told a press briefing, marking the end of the four-year pilot phase of a bird flu-control project funded by the US and Singapore governments. The project is slated for termination on Friday. :censor :censor :censor

snip

World Health Organization (WHO) data shows that globally, bird flu cases reached 566 incidents with 332 deaths between 2003 and 2011. In Indonesia alone, during this period, bird flu cases reached 179, resulting in 147 deaths, which spread across 13 provinces.

Read more here: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/12/30/ri-remains-global-bird-flu-hot-spot.html

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Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:02 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Sorry all! Missed this one. Egypt remains on the boil so to speak.

Avian influenza - situation in Egypt - update 59

21 December 2011 -The Ministry of Health and Population of Egypt has notified WHO of a case of human infection with avian influenza A (H5N1) virus.‪

The case is a 29-year-old male from Dakahlia Governorate. He developed symptoms on 8 December 2011 and was admitted to hospital on 15 December 2011, where he received oseltamivir treatment. He was in critical condition and died on 19 December 2011.

The case was confirmed by the Central Public Health Laboratories, a National Influenza Centre of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network on 18 December 2011.

Investigations into the source of infection indicated that the case had exposure to backyard poultry.

Of the 156 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, 54 have been fatal.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2011_12_21/en/index.html

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Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:07 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Crow death specter spreads to Jajpur

KENDRAPADA: The mysterious epidemic that claimed many crows in the port town of Paradip recently has now spread to Jajpur Road of Jajpur district, with about 150 crow deaths reported in Jajpur Road area over the past two days, triggering panic among residents who have been advised by experts not to touch the carcasses.

"Recently many crows have died due to the deadly bird flu disease or H5N1 virus in areas of Jharkhand, bordering Odisha. We are on the alert since the crows started dying in Jajpur Road," said Dr Kailash Chandra Mohanty, chief district veterinary officer (CDVO) of Jajpur on Thursday.

"We are organizing workshops and training and distributing pamphlets detailing the dos and don'ts regarding crow deaths. It will basically pertain to the correct methods of using kits and handling crow carcasses. The surveillance unit has been asked to procure special kits comprising gloves, masks and other tools," said Dr Chitta Ranjan Swain of Animal Disease Research Institute (ADRI) of Bhubaneswar. This apart, hoardings will also be put up to inform people about safe ways to handle and dispose of the dead scavengers and prevent the spread of the avian virus to poultry and human beings, he added.

Swain suspects Pasturella, E-coli viruses are largely responsible for the abrupt rise in death of crows in Paradip and Jajpur Road. "Bulging eyes, constant fluid discharge from the mouth, moderation in feather flap, imbalance in their posture are a few symptoms of the crows affected by the Pasturella and E-coil virus," he said.

"In the past few weeks, we have noticed a relative increase in the death of crows and possibly it could be due to these viruses but we need to corroborate the claims with a medical report. People were also being instructed to sprinkle lime over the carcasses and also at the place where the crows are being buried," Swain said.

Read more here: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhubaneswar/Crow-death-specter-spreads-to-Jajpur/articleshow/11302777.cms

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Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:13 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Deadly bird flu suspected in hospitalized Chinese man

HONG KONG — China has reported a suspected human case of the H5N1 virus, or bird flu, in a southern city bordering Hong Kong, officials said on Friday. The patient, a 39-year-old man living in Shenzhen, developed symptoms on Dec. 21 and was admitted to a hospital on Dec. 25 because of severe pneumonia, the Centre of Health Protection of Hong Kong said in a statement. He is now in critical condition.

China's Ministry of Health said preliminary laboratory tests on the patient's specimen by the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province had yielded a positive result for H5N1.

About 10 days ago Hong Kong culled 17,000 chickens at a wholesale poultry market and suspended all imports of live chickens from mainland China for 21 days after a dead chicken there tested positive for the H5N1 virus

Read more here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45826580/ns/health-cold_and_flu/

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Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:08 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Chinese man critical with bird flu
Asia, HealthFriday, December 30th, 2011

A man is in critical condition after testing positive for the deadly bird flu virus in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, state media said Saturday.

The city borders Hong Kong, which has already culled thousands of chickens and ordered a suspension of live poultry imports from China after three birds tested positive with the strain mid-December.

The man, a bus driver surnamed Chen, was hospitalised with a fever earlier this month and tested positive for the H5N1 avian influenza virus in Shenzhen, the provincial health department said, according to Xinhua news agency.

The report said the 39-year-old was taken to hospital on December 21, but the Hong Kong health department said in a statement he developed symptoms that day and was hospitalised on December 25 because of “severe pneumonia.”

He remains in a critical condition and is receiving emergency treatment. Authorities say the man had apparently had no direct contact with poultry in the month before he was taken ill nor had he left the city. :censor :censor :censor

“We will heighten our vigilance and continue to maintain stringent port health measures in connection with this development,” a spokesman for the Hong Kong health department said.

Chinese and Hong Kong authorities have been working closely together since December 21 after live poultry supplies were suspended to the glitzy financial hub following the discovery of infected birds.

Read more here: http://updatednews.ca/2011/12/30/chinese-man-critical-with-bird-flu/

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Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:42 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Zimbabwe...

MDC-T senator died of bird flu
News — By admin on December 30, 2011 11:37 pm
By Pindai Dube

BULAWAYO – Gladys Gombami-Dube the mainstream MDC senator for Mabutweni died of bird flu, a family spokesperson told journalists at her house in Mpopoma high density suburb on Wednesday.

Family spokesperson Samuel Gombami who is brother to Gladys’ husband Fanuel said that postmortem results released on Tuesday in Harare shows that she died of bird flu.

“We were finally given postmortem results and they show that she was taken away by bird flu. We still can’t believe this as a family, we are in still shock,” said Fanuel Gombami.

Read more here: http://nehandaradio.com/2011/12/30/mdc-t-senator-died-of-bird-flu/

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Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:45 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Man dies from bird flu in southern China :candle

BEIJING — A man in southern China's Guangdong province died of bird flu on Saturday a week after being admitted to hospital with a fever, state media reported.

The 39-year-old bus driver living in Shenzhen, just across the border from Hong Kong, developed symptoms on Dec. 21 and was admitted to a hospital on Dec. 25 because of severe pneumonia, the official Xinhua news agency said.

He died in the early afternoon of multiple organ failure, having tested positive for the H5N1 virus, the report added.

He had no direct contact with poultry in the month prior to getting sick and had not left the city, Xinhua said.

Guangdong's official newspaper, the Southern Daily, said separately that 120 people who had contact with the man had developed no signs of sickness.

snip

Authorities in China are worried about the spread of infectious diseases around this time when millions of Chinese travel in crowded buses and trains across the country to go home to celebrate the Lunar New Year.

Read more here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45833090/ns/health/

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Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:42 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
The incident in Zimbabwe doesn't specify what strain it was; in China it was stated to be H5N1.

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Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:14 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Yep, Ruts. The Zimbabwe story is strange, indeed.

Where and how was she exposed? :hmm

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Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:49 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Madzorera denies bird flu death
Saturday, 31 December 2011 18:26
BY NQABA MATSHAZI

MYSTERY surrounds the cause of death of MDC-T legislator, Gladys Gombami.

News reports said she had died of avian influenza or bird flu but health expects deny there any cases of the disease in the country. Health and Child Welfare Minister Henry Madzorera said the government had not raised any alerts of an outbreak of the disease as they had not received reports of a possible epidemic.

“The Epidemics and Disease Control centre has not informed me about any outbreak, but they are closed and we can only know that after the holidays,” he said.

Madzorera said he could not comment further as he had not received any news of an outbreak.

Officials from the health ministry also revealed that there were no known cases of the virus in Zimbabwe or in the region. They said it was highly unlikely that there could have been an outbreak in the country.

The only recently recorded cases, the officials said, were reported in Hong Kong and a spread to Zimbabwe at this stage was highly improbable.

But the family of the late senator insist that post-mortem results had indicated that Gombami had been afflicted with the deadly avian virus.

The Standard could not have access to the post-mortem report.


To add to the mystery, a Kadoma doctor reportedly declined to carry out a postmortem and instead referred the family to a hospital in Harare.

“We were told that she had a swelling in her stomach because there was water in her lungs, but this did not make sense to us,” an informed source said.

The source said before her death, the senator was down with influenza, she however developed an unnamed infection in her chest.

Read more here: http://www.thestandard.co.zw/local/33327-madzorera-denies-bird-flu-death.html

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Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:12 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Bird Flu Strain That Killed Man Won’t Spread, China Officials Say

A Chinese bus driver died after complications from the bird flu virus Saturday, but after genetic analysis, the country’s health officials announced Monday that the strain contracted by the man can’t spread from person-to-person, the Associated Press reported.

According to the country’s official Xinhua News Agency, the 39-year-old man contracted the virus after having close contact with infected poultry.

“Though it is highly pathogenic to human beings, the virus can not spread among people,” the Shenzhen Disease Control Center said in a statement, according to Xinhua. “There is no need for Shenzhen citizens to panic.” :hmm :doh

Read more here: http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/health/2012/01/02/bird-flu-strain-that-killed-man-wont-spread-china-officials-say/

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Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:03 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Chinese Bird Flu Death Was Mutant Strain, Say Health Experts

The strain of H5N1 avian influenza that infected and killed a man in Shenzhen, China, was a mutant strain of the deadly virus, according to Chinese and Hong Kong media reports.

snip

Later, experts from both Shenzhen and Hong Kong confirmed that it was a mutant strain of H5N1, though they did not go into detail about what kind of mutation it was.

snip

Ma Wuhan, Deputy Director of the Center for Disease and Control in Shenzhen, told Hong Kong media that the form of the virus that infected the patient was “very virulent,” which is why the patient had experienced a strong reaction, ending in death. He also said that so far, the virus has not been transmitted from human to human: only from animal to human.

Chinese media reported that Chen lived close to a man-made lake and wetlands inhabited by many wild birds. An expert team on avian influenza also stated in the diagnostic report that “the patient had a habit of working out in the morning, and had contracted the disease during the bird flu season.”

Zhou Poping, the chief of an avian influenza expert team in Shenzhen, said that although the patient did not have contact with fowl, experts surmised that he contracted the virus through bird feces, according to a report by Nanfang Daily.

snip

Read more here: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinese-bird-flu-death-was-mutant-strain-say-health-experts-168753.html

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Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:49 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
I don't normally post links to other forums. In this case, however, Flu Trackers is an established and reputable forum.

For those interested, Laidback Al has done a bang up job in this summary. It is well worth the time to read and study his charts.



A Summary of Worldwide Human H5N1 Cases in 2011
Laidback Al, Senior Moderator, www.FluTrackers.com
January 1, 2012

Abstract – In 2011, 59 human cases of H5N1 were reported from around the world, a 23% increase over 2010. Five countries reported cases in 2011, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, and Indonesia. Almost half of the 59 cases (about 45%) were children under 10 years old. The fatality rate did not appreciably decline in 2011, about half of all the reported cases died. Four small family clusters were noted during the year. The source of exposure for all of the cluster cases has been reported as exposure to sick and dying poultry. None of these clusters resulted in sustained human to human transmission. Based on an analysis of the 2011 data, the potential for a virulent H5N1 pandemic has not diminished.

Read more here: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=179052

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Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:57 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Quote:
None of these clusters resulted in sustained human to human transmission. Based on an analysis of the 2011 data, the potential for a virulent H5N1 pandemic has not diminished.

Laidback Al

Definitely agree, especially considering the LETHAL H5N1 variant created in the virus lab in the Netherlands, run by Dr. Osterhaus!!

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Tue Jan 03, 2012 6:12 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Chinese State Media Deny Poultry Slaughter Due to Bird Flu

Chinese state media has denied that the slaughter of 27,500 chickens in Guangdong was to prevent the spread of bird flu, saying it was instead because of a combination of leukemia and infection of the wind pipe.

Over two thousand chickens died in a few days at a poultry farm in Zengcheng, Guangdong Province, before the slaughter of all 27,500 birds was ordered.

Mr. Huang, an epidemic control clerk for the township, told The Epoch Times: “Some chickens caught a cold, and it started to infect other chickens. The situation has been hard to predict. Several hundred chickens may die in a single day. To prevent other animals and humans from being infected, the epidemic control authorities of Zengcheng City came and killed all of the chickens at the farm.”

When asked how the 27,500 chickens had been dispatched, Huang said: “We don’t know. We were not allowed to stay at the scene when the city’s epidemic control center did their job. The news is blocked. You have to ask the city’s epidemic control station.” :awe

The neighboring villages didn’t seem to have been notified. When several local people nearby were reached by telephone, none knew about the event.

snip

Many who learned the news about the poultry farm slaughter are worried that incidents of bird flu infection are re-emerging in Guangdong. The explanation from Xinhua and the Department of Agriculture in Guangzhou, only says that the chickens contracted avian leukemia which was complicated by infectious avian laryngotracheitis (inflammation of the larynx and the trachea). But Leukemia, a cancer of the blood cells, is not a contagious disease.

Read more here: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinese-mass-poultry-slaughter-denied-to-be-due-to-bird-flu-170134.html

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Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:20 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Bhutan

Culling underway in affected poultry farms

Bird Flu Outbreak: By yesterday evening, 395 chickens and 447 eggs were culled after the recent outbreak of bird flu was confirmed in Tsimasham, Chukha on December 31, last year.

On January 4, a total of 330 birds and 360 eggs in four poultry farms were culled.

Last evening, they culled the remaining 65 birds and 87 eggs.

The culling began, following a confirmation of an outbreak by the national centre for animal health in Serbithang, Thimphu.

snip

“We’re culling only those birds, whose farms are located nearest to Lhamo’s poultry farm, because the risk of them being infected is high,” Dr Tashi Dorji said. “We’re still investigating other farms.”

snip

Contact with pigeons is suspected to have caused the outbreak. “The poultry must have come in contact with pigeons to feed on rice,” Dr Tashi Dorji said. “And pigeons are wild birds that carries such virus.”

The detailed report from Bhopal will also confirm the source of infection, while the ministry is now working on the compensation that needs to be paid to the owners of culled birds.

As a preventive measure, spraying of disinfectant on vehicles plying that route also began yesterday. :clap

By Yangchen C Rinzin

http://www.kuenselonline.com/2011/?p=24555

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Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:23 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
simple simon wrote:
It seems that H5N1 bird flu might be about to create a pandemic.

:scared

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm (dated 5th Jan, but updates daily).

(part of article - which gives this a 15% probability)

Simon

---------------------------------------------------------

The following is NOT a prediction of what will happen, but rather what COULD happen in an absolute worst-case build out from a single bird flu report. As you read this, you'll understand why I am never critical of the US government's http://www.flu.gov website!

*

12/21/11: A man in Shenzhen manifests with flu-like symptoms.
*

12/25/11: The man in Shenzhen is admitted to a hospital with severe pneumonia symptoms.
*

12/31/11: After struggling for a week the man dies of multiple organ failure.
*

01/01/12: Biologists around the world read about the death in China due to H5N1 (after they sober up from the night before).
*

01/03/12: A CDC virologist requests RNA sequence information on the Shenzhen H5N1.
*

01/03/12: Over 100 biologists ask the question: “Where is Shenzhen?” Some of them fear they know what the answer will be.
*

01/03/12: 50 biologists look it up on Wikipedia. Their fears are confirmed: Guangdong province. The birthplace of SARS.
*

01/04/12: The chatter begins. Guangdong has been dreaded as one high risk area for the onset of a future pandemic.
*

01/04/12: The Shenzhen Center for Disease Prevention and Control appeals for calm. It is announced that the H5N1 is 90% identical to a strain found in migratory ducks. Therefore, the man contracted it from birds rather than from another human. Also, the man had been jogging in a park every day where there where migratory birds present. Nothing to worry about.
*

01/04/12: Molecular biologists, microbiologists & virologists are stunned by the comments. Only 90% similarity & the Shenzhen health officials are claiming that is close enough of a match to the wild-type H5N1 to not worry? The reality is that those strains are barely related. Picking up bird flu while jogging? After all, there were migratory birds present. Not likely.
*

01/04/12: Reportedly, 120 people in contact with the man who died have not come down with the flu.
*

01/05/12: The CDC virologist has not been able to get a sequence showing the 90% similarity. She is getting nervous about the situation.
*

01/08/12: Several people are admitted to a hospital in Hong Kong with flu-like symptoms.
*

01/10/12: Two people in their 20s in Hong Kong die of organ system failure and are confirmed to have H5N1
*

01/15/12: Several health departments confirm that the full sequence of the H5N1 had not yet been done. The 90% report was an estimate.
*

01/16/12: Few new cases have been identified of H5N1, after 3 million commercial poultry were destroyed.
*

01/29/12: Strange movements are reported in North Korea. Schools and factories are shut for a “renewed period of mourning” and to celebrate the new supreme leader of North Korea.
*

02/01/12: Several South Koreans are hospitalized with flu-like symptoms in a town near the coastal border between North & South Korea.
*

02/05/12: Multiple schools in Seoul report a high incidence of absences, but the symptoms seem to be cold-like.
*

02/07/12: Numerous parents of children in Seoul are admitted to hospitals with pneumonia.
*

02/08/12: A doctor from North Korea is able to cross the border into China. He reports that tens of thousands of North Koreans have died from “pneumonia”. He brings a cheek swab to give to the Chinese Health Department.
*

02/08/12: Globally, N95 respiratory masks are sold out. The N95 masks are selling on the black market for $100.00 each.
*

02/09/12: The outbreak in North Korea is confirmed to be the same strain of H5N1 that first appeared in Shenzhen.
*

02/10/12: Hospitals are beginning to strain from patients with flu-like symptoms throughout Seoul, Hong Kong & Beijing.
*

02/12/12: The HA gene of H5N1 is confirmed to have mutations that make the virus extremely virulent.
*

02/15/12: Initial cases of H5N1 are identified in Tokyo, Manila, Brisbane, Tehran and Nairobi.
*

02/16/12: The US, Canada, Mexico, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Germany and 29 other nations ban all international flights.
*

02/20/12: Human transmissible H5N1 has been confirmed in 11 countries.
*

02/30/12: The H5N1 outbreak is behaving in atypical fashion. Children and the elderly with confirmed H5N1 are experiencing minor flu symptoms. Among otherwise healthy young adults and older teenagers the mortality rate is high.
*

03/01/12: US hospitals are overwhelmed with emergency room visits due to flu-like symptoms. No H5N1 is detected. All cases are H1 varieties of influenza.
*

03/03/12: H5N1 is identified in patients in Atlanta, NYC, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Honolulu, San Francisco and Fresno.
*

03/05/12: All 50 states have confirmed H5N1 cases.
*

03/06/12: Multiple Governors deploy National Guard members to help with crowd control at hospitals and clinics .
*

03/08/12: Too many reservists are sick to handle the demand. Multiple Governors request federal government intervention.
*

03/09/12: All public and private K-12 and secondary schools are ordered closed.
*

03/09/12: Troops from military bases around the country are deployed to assist the remaining national guard members.
*

03/09/12: The WHO & CDC hold a joint press conference to confirm that prevention of a pandemic is not an option. Mitigation will be the focus.
*

03/13/12: Supplies are not moving to grocery stores rapidly enough & emergency food dispensing sites are set up.
*

03/15/12: Preliminary numbers indicate that overall mortality rates are in the 50% range.
*

04/01/12: Every country is reporting cases of H5N1.
*

04/15/12: A woman in NYC is robbed at gunpoint for her respiratory mask.
*

04/30/12: All federal and state government offices are closed.
*

05/29/12: Several cities have banned below ground burial as there is not enough room. Cremation becomes the method of necessity.
*

06/29/12: Food riots are happening on nearly a daily basis.
*

08/29/12: Some normalcy has begun to return. Summer harvest has somewhat reduced the food crises.
*

09/29/12: A vaccine has been developed that will be effective against the H5N1.
*

10/10/12: The pandemic has been harsh in Australia, New Zealand and developed areas of Africa and South America. Poorer areas have experienced normal flu-related deaths.
*

10/28/12: Mass vaccinations are begun throughout the Northern Hemisphere in advance of the anticipated winter spike in the flu.
*

11/11/12: The first new cases in 45 days of H5N1 appear in the Us and Canada.
*

12/25/12: Schools will not be reopening after the holiday break as new cases of flu are spiking.
*

01/10/13: The HA gene of H5N1 has mutated enough that the vaccine is providing minimal protection.
*

02/02/13: The second wave of the pandemic is sweeping the Northern Hemisphere, overwhelming the health delivery systems and bringing the economy to a near standstill.
*

06/27/13: Several weeks overlap where the pandemic is raging in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
*

07/25/13: No confirmed new cases appear for 72 hours in the US. The summer reprieve has begun.
*

07/29/13: Schools now meet in July-October as the new school year.
*

10/10/13: The new vaccine has contamination problems. Only 10 million safe doses are available in the US. There are riots at vaccination clinics as people are turned away.
*

11/17/13: The third wave of the pandemic begins in the US.
*

05/05/14: The third wave of sickness ends earlier than the previous rounds.
*

12/12/14: Three strains of influenza are detected in the population. No new cases of H5N1 are identified. The bird-flu pandemic is over.
*

07/04/15: Strains of H5N1 found in migratory foul have a single nucleotide change in the HA gene. This change makes transmission of the virus to humans nearly impossible.

Estimated global direct and indirect costs associated with the pandemic: $90 trillion.

Total estimate of global population made ill: 4.4 billion people.

Final estimate of deaths due to the pandemic: 2.1 billion deaths.

Estimate of family units that experienced illness or death: >88% globally.

Most frequent cause of death: 1) systemic organ failure, or 2) exclusively respiratory failure.

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Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:47 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
SS's post can be misleading if it isn't read carefully; as I learned by experience! :embarressed It is a possible worst-case scenario, which those of us who followed BF are well aware of, but I began reading as if it were a real-time scenario, until I realized that the dates kept going on into the future! (That'll teach me!) Again, as I said on that thread, I do not see H5N1 as it stands now as ever mutating into a virus that goes easily H2H. Looking back, I find it odd that it had such a sustained surge, where it actually did travel H2H in several clusters, and then died out..... BUT if the engineered lethal man-made strain of H5N1 gets released, all bets are off.

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Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:30 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Ya know? I thought we were waaayyyy beyond this type of behavior by medical professionals (and I use that term loosely) especially in Indonesia.

Sigh! Guess not, huh?


Bird flu suspect dies in Jakarta

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Mon, 01/09/2012 5:38 PM

A person suspected of being infected with bird flu, identified as PDY, 23, a resident of Tanjung Priok, North Jakarta, died on Sunday.

snip

PDY’s mother, S, 48, said that PDY had a high fever since New Year’s Eve and had been rushed to the Satya Negara hospital in North Jakarta. The hospital said that he might have suffered from a gastric infection.

A few days later, PDY’s family brought him back to the hospital, after which the hospital claimed that he might have been suffering from dengue and suggested that PDY stay at the hospital.

On Friday, a doctor recommended PDY to be taken to the Sulianto Suroso infectious diseases hospital because the hospital has a special installation for handling cases of bird flu.

However, PDY was rejected by the hospital because its intensive care unit was full. :shock:

snip

PDY’s sister, ASR, 5, is currently being treated at the Persahabatan hospital with the same symptoms, kompas.com reported.(swd)

Read more here: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/01/09/bird-flu-suspect-dies-jakarta.html

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Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:28 am
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Vietnam, Cambodia report bird flu deaths
By TRAN VAN MINH, Associated Press – 7 hours ago

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Vietnam on Thursday confirmed its first human death from bird flu in nearly two years, a day after neighboring Cambodia also logged its first fatality this year as new cases of the H5N1 virus are reported in Asia and the Middle East.

Both deaths appear to be linked to contact with poultry, and no human-to-human transmission is suspected. Other human bird flu cases have been reported recently in Indonesia, Egypt and China. Outbreaks typically flare among poultry stocks during the winter flu months, often resulting in a spate of human cases.

In Vietnam, test results confirmed that an 18-year-old Vietnamese man died of the disease Monday after being hospitalized a day earlier, said Dang Thi Thanh of southern Kien Giang province's health department.

She said the man was working at a duck farm in neighboring Can Tho City when he fell sick with a high fever and breathing problems. His house has been disinfected and those who were in contact with him remain under surveillance.

No sick or dead poultry have been reported on the two farms where the man worked or among neighboring flocks, but samples have been collected for analysis and the farms have been disinfected, said Huynh Thi Khai Hoan, an animal health officer in Can Tho City. However, many of the ducks on the farms where the man worked had already been sold. :huh

In Cambodia, a 2-year-old boy died Wednesday after developing symptoms Jan. 3. He was reportedly in contact with sick poultry in his village, according to the World Health Organization. The country's last death occurred in August. This hurts my heart. Rest in peace, little one! :heart :candle

Read more here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gRxwadbWO-czuVwDhSg0AiV9Ar0A?docId=cf85b3890094460f9073a0e2b202d89e

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Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:14 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
This is from Avian Flu Diary's blog. Interesting...

Indonesian MOH Announces Bird Flu Fatality
UPDATED 0800hrs EST – See Bottom

Ten days ago we learned of the death of a 23 year-old man living in north Jakarta from the H5N1 virus, presumably contracted from pigeons he was raising (see Bird Flu Suspect Dies In Indonesia).

At the time, there were media reports that this man’s sibling (ASR, age 5) was also ill and hospitalized, but it was reported on January 9th that he/she tested negative for the H5N1 virus.

Quote:
5-Year-Old Brother of Bird Flu Victim Cleared by Doctors


Dofa Fasila | January 10, 2012

Health authorities in Jakarta on Monday gave the 5-year-old brother of a young man who recently died of bird flu a clean bill of health.
The toddler, identified only as A.S.R., was hospitalized with a fever and cough on Saturday, the same day his 23-year-old brother, P.D.Y., died of the disease.


We know that testing for the H5N1 virus has always been difficult, particularly once a patient is placed on antivirals, and we’ve seen some cases where patients tested negative repeatedly up until their demise, and bird flu infection was only established post-mortem.

Which is why many observers of the bird flu situation in Indonesia take negative test results with a grain of salt. ;)

Today, via a statement released from the Indonesian Ministry of Health (h/t Gert van der Hoek on FluTrackers), we now learn that a 5 year old girl from the same neighborhood (with exposure to pigeons) has died after testing positive for the virus on January 13th.

Most of the details match those of the 5 year-old referenced above (excluding gender), so it seems likely they are one in the same. Hopefully we’ll get a clarification of gender, and exact relationship to the first victim (if any), when the WHO updates this case. :hmm


Read more here: http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2012/01/indonesian-moh-announces-bird-flu.html

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Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:19 pm
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Post Re: Just H5N1 - Avian Influenza
Toddler died from bird flu: Health Ministry

The Jakarta Post | Fri, 01/20/2012 11:26 AM

A toddler whose brother died of bird flu while being taken to hospital earlier this month become the country’s second casualty of the deadly virus this year.

ASR, 5, from Tanjung Priok in North Jakarta, died on Monday after receiving treatment at the Persahabatan hospital in East Jakarta since Jan. 10, the Health Ministry announced on Thursday.

The ministry’s research center said that it was confirmed on Jan. 13 that she had been infected with H5N1, after testing negative several times.

Read more here: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/01/20/toddler-died-bird-flu-health-ministry.html

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Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:39 am
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