A big heads up to those of you in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina.

The models have been swinging all over the place since this baby is so far out right now.

The models have swung from Mobile eastward to either the East or West Coast of Florida with Miami now looking better.

It may be Tuesday before the models come into better agreement but for now if you live in the SE US you need to start making preps now.

Here is a great place to watch pro meterologists cuss and discuss:

Irene to Strike Eastern North Carolina as a Major Hurricane By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Aug 23, 2011; 9:00 AM

The latest projected path of Irene takes it over eastern North Carolina as a major hurricane this weekend, posing a severe threat to lives and property.

Given the setup in the atmosphere as well as where hurricanes have traveled from similar starting points, negotiating the Antilles, Irene may take a path similar to or east of Hurricane Bertha in 1996.

The difference between Bertha and Irene is that Bertha was a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Irene should come onshore over the Carolinas as a strong Category 3 hurricane.

Irene would then become the strongest hurricane to strike the Carolinas since Fran in 1996.

People in eastern North Carolina, especially the coastal areas and barrier islands from Wilmington on northeast to Hatteras, should begin making preparations for a possible hurricane landfall that brings 100-mph winds or greater, storm surge flooding, torrential rainfall and possible tornadoes.

People in these areas should be prepared to evacuate, in case the order is given.

As we often see with a hurricane moving along this sort of path, the worst conditions will be near, north and east of the center of circulation.

Storms moving in this manner along the East coast of the United States tend to become lop-sided with dry air sweeping in west and southwest of the center promoting sunny skies.

This sort of setup could deprive some areas of the interior South of needed rainfall.

That being said, there can still be minimal tropical storm-force winds west of the center along the eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Tree damage and power outages would be possible.

"Large waves and swells will increase causing dangerous surf and a high potential for rip currents starting on Wednesday and lasting into this weekend," stated AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Tropical Weather Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski as an added danger for these coasts.

The outermost rain bands of Irene could graze the Florida beaches on Thursday into Friday morning, Kottlowski added.

There are other ramifications as the storm is not going to stop in North Carolina. It is very possible strong tropical storm or even hurricane conditions will continue to spread up the immediate northern Atlantic coast.

Areas that stick out in this region, such as Long Island and Cape Cod, could be the most vulnerable.

If the fast forward motion of the storm continues, it could spread damage, including that of downed trees, power lines and coastal flooding issues, into the mid-Atlantic late this weekend on Long Island and into southern and eastern New England.

There is a possibility the center of Irene may try to parallel the North Carolina coast at the last minute with a brush on the Outer Banks.

North Carolina island must evacuate ahead of hurricane
By CURT ANDERSON, Associated Press
Updated 11:24 a.m., Tuesday, August 23, 2011

RALEIGH, N.C. - Authorities on North Carolina's Ocracoke Island have issued a mandatory evacuation order for visitors to leave starting at 5 a.m. Wednesday as Hurricane Irene approaches.

Officials said Tuesday that a mandatory evacuation order for all non-emergency personnel will go into effect Thursday morning for the barrier island, which is only accessible by boat.

snip

Forecasters say the hurricane could grow to a monstrous Category 4 storm with winds of more than 131 mph before it's predicted to come ashore this weekend on the U.S. mainland. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami expected Irene to reach Category 3 strength today, said spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

Current government models have the storm's outer bands sweeping Florida late this week before it takes aim at the Carolinas this weekend, though forecasters caution that predictions made days in advance can be off by hundreds of miles. Georgia is also likely to be affected.

An updated forecast released this morning also showed that Irene could move into the Chesapeake Bay by Sunday at hurricane strength. That latest model showed Irene making landfall along the North Carolina coast. However, because the storm is still days away from the U.S., some models also show Irene remaining offshore along the East Coast.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Ike, which pounded Texas in 2008.

Read more here:

Irene strengthens to a Category 3 hurricane

(CNN) -- Hurricane Irene intensified into a Category 3 storm Wednesday, threatening much of the United States' East Coast in the coming days.

The storm had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

The strengthening, which officially made Irene a major hurricane, came as the storm continued to pound the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

At about 8 a.m. ET, the Hurricane Center said Irene had was headed for the Crooked and Acklins Islands.

Irene is on a path that will see it rake a large portion of the island chain as it heads northwest toward the United States.

The storm could threaten large sections of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Carolinas northward.

Read more here:

Below is from Accuweather.

There is some speculation (and some model guidance to back it up) that Irene may (I repeat MAY) pass within 70 nautical miles of Cape Fear, NC.

The National Hurricane Center has moved the forecast track a bit East this morning.

That said, please understand that the least wobble to the left or right will either increase or decrease the effects below.

BTW - some models are predicting a Connecticut landfall!

snip

The outermost rain bands of Irene will reach the eastern Carolinas on Friday. Tropical moisture from Irene interacting with a front could also lead to locally heavy rain across northeastern North Carolina and neighboring Virginia this day.

Rain and wind will increase across the easternmost tip of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina om Friday night into Saturday.

While tropical storm-force winds howl farther inland, destructive winds of 100 to perhaps 130 mph will whip the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Winds of these intense speeds can flatten trees and cause significant damage to homes and buildings.

"However, if the center of Irene passes just east of the Outer Banks, the winds will be much less," clarified Kottlowski.

Adding to the danger to lives and properties across the Outer Banks will be a storm surge of 7 to 13 feet above normal water levels, along with large and pounding waves if Irene tracks west of these barrier islands.

Even if Irene passes east of the Outer Banks, a flooding storm surge will likely not be averted. Winds with a westerly component would instead drive water from the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds onto the western shores of the islands.

Other flooding concerns will arise throughout easternmost North Carolina as Irene unleashes a total of 4 to 6 inches of rain, with localized amounts to 10 inches, this weekend.

Due to the impending threat, the Associated Press reports officials have ordered residents and tourists to evacuate Ocracoke Island. This island on the Outer Banks is only accessible by boat.

After pounding the Outer Banks, Irene will follow in the footsteps of Hurricane Bob from 1991 and take aim at New England.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is expecting Irene to slam into eastern New England as a Category 1 hurricane late on Sunday or Sunday evening, accompanied by damaging winds and a flooding storm surge.

Torrential rainfall will arrive much sooner and overspread the mid-Atlantic prior to the New England landfall, threatening to cause widespread flooding problems.

snip

Read more here:

Here is what we expect in various cities along the Atlantic Seaboard:

Miami, Fla.
The eye wall of Irene will stay well to the east of Florida. However, there is the possibility of a couple of gusty thunderstorms in Miami into Friday morning. In general, winds will stay below tropical storm force. Bathers should be aware of strong rip currents.

Charleston, S.C.
The eye wall of Irene will stay well to the east late Friday night and Saturday. Minimal tropical storm-force winds and a couple of periods of heavy rain could graze the city Friday night. Gusty offshore winds are in store on Saturday with a return of sunshine. Coastal flooding is possible due to a small storm surge and high astronomical tides.

Wilmington, N.C.
The eye wall and strongest winds of Irene will pass just east Saturday, but not the storm's heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. These winds could down trees and power lines and cause some structural damage. Conditions will deteriorate Friday night into Saturday morning with the worst conditions Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunshine will return and winds will diminish on Sunday.

High astronomical tides from the new moon will add to water levels and raise the risk of coastal flooding with this situation. Building seas and strengthening rip currents will spread northward 48 hours in advance of Irene.

Outer Banks, N.C.
A direct hit from the eye wall of Irene is possible Saturday evening with storm surge flooding, hurricane-force winds (gusts to 125 mph) and torrential rain. Expect structural damage and power outages with life-threatening conditions possible. Conditions will deteriorate Friday night into Saturday. While clearing is in store on Sunday, flooding from the Sounds is possible due to west to northwest winds.

Norfolk, Virginia Beach and the Tidewater, Va.
The eye wall and the strongest winds of Irene will pass to the east Saturday night. Despite this track, heavy rain will inundate the city, and onshore tropical storm-force winds with possible hurricane-force gusts from the north and northeast could lead to extensive coastal flooding, damage and power outages. Conditions will deteriorate Saturday with the worst conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. Expect dangerous surf conditions with significant beach erosion.

Baltimore, Md. / Washington, D.C.
The eye wall of Irene will pass well to the east Saturday night. However, a period of heavy rain can lead to flash flooding, and minimal tropical storm-force wind gusts can cause some downed trees and power outages from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Conditions will be worse on the Eastern Shore.

Ocean City, Md.
The eye wall of Irene will pass just offshore later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Weather conditions will deteriorate Saturday into Saturday evening with wind and rain increasing. Periods of heavy rain, damaging sustained tropical storm-force winds with hurricane-force wind gusts (75 mph) and coastal flooding are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Expect significant beach erosion with a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet.

Philadelphia, Pa. / Wilmington, Del.
The eye wall of Irene will pass well to the east Sunday. However, heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and minimal tropical storm-force wind gusts that can cause some downed trees and power outages during Saturday night and Sunday. Conditions will be worse in New Jersey and central/southern Delaware.

Sandy Hook to Cape May, N.J.
The eye wall of Irene will pass just offshore Sunday morning. Weather conditions will deteriorate Saturday into Saturday evening with wind and rain increasing. Periods of heavy rain, damaging sustained tropical storm-force winds with hurricane-force wind gusts (75 mph) and coastal flooding are possible Saturday night and Sunday. Expect significant beach erosion with a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet.

New York City
The eye wall of Irene will pass to the south and east of the city Sunday. However, there is an elevated risk of flooding rain throughout the metro area including the northern and western suburbs. Expect coastal flooding in areas prone to problems during a strong nor'easter. Strong winds at tropical storm force (50 mph) are in store which can lead to downed trees, as well as power outages in outlying areas. Conditions will be much worse farther east across Long Island, where hurricane-force gusts (90 mph) are forecast. Coastal areas of Long Island can expect an average storm surge of 2 to 4 feet, but locally higher.

Hartford, Conn.
The eye wall of Irene will pass to the south and east of the city Sunday. However, there is an elevated risk of flooding rain. Strong winds of sustained tropical storm force (60 mph) are in store that can lead to downed trees and power outages. Conditions will be worse if Irene tracks farther west than expected. Conditions will be worse farther east and south over Connecticut.

Providence, R.I.
The eye wall of Irene may pass close by later Sunday into Sunday night. Periods of heavy rain and hurricane-force winds (80 mph) are forecast. Expect widespread power outages and flooding. If the center passes to the southeast, coastal flooding will be minimal. If the center passes to the west, major coastal flooding problems may occur.

Boston to Cape Cod, Mass.
The eye wall of Irene may pass close by Sunday into Sunday night. Periods of heavy rain, hurricane-force winds (80 mph) and well above-normal tides are forecast. Expect widespread power outages and flooding with a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet.

Portsmouth, N.H., and Portland through Down East Maine
The eye wall of Irene is forecast to pass close by late Sunday and Sunday night. However, periods of heavy rain, gusts of hurricane force (80 mph) and well above-normal tides can occur. Expect widespread power outages and flooding.

Irene's final, quick-hitting visit in North America will be a visit to Atlantic Canada. The provinces of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Quebec will be affected later Sunday night into Monday.

The worst conditions with heavy rain, damaging winds (60 mph) and pounding surf are likely in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. However, a shift farther to the east in the storm's track would take more severe conditions into Newfoundland.

Remember, if your city of interest does not appear in this list, you can get your latest local forecast on AccuWeather.com.

AccuWeather.com has also provided a table with expected wind, rain and surge for more of the East Coast's major cities.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...IRENE POUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 670 MI...1085 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM. THE
OFFICIAL REPORTING SITE IN NASSAU RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION ON NASSAU
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 100 MPH...161 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE AT ROCK SOUND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952.4 MB AS THE
CENTER PASSED NEARBY A FEW HOURS AGO.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Irene: New York City, Mid-Atlantic Put on High Alert
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Aug 25, 2011; 8:05 AM ETShare | .

Hurricane Irene is now on a path that could take it dangerously close to, if not over, the mid-Atlantic coastline and New York City on Sunday, posing a serious danger to millions of people.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is confident that Irene will strike the Outer Banks of North Carolina Saturday evening as a strong Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane.

Beyond that point, latest indications put Irene on a path extremely close to or over the mid-Atlantic coast and New York City before plowing into western New England.

Irene is expected to track near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva coast Saturday night, then could pass within 30 miles of New York City Sunday evening as a weakening Category 2 hurricane.

Such a path would lead to severe impacts that could prompt officials to force evacuations. All residents and visitors in the path of Irene should heed these orders if issued and prepare homes and businesses for Irene's onslaught in the meantime.

Strong Winds, Coastal Impacts Along and East of Irene's Eye

On its current forecast path, Irene would spread destructive hurricane-force winds (gusts between 80 to 100 mph) across the Delmarva coast, eastern New Jersey, New York City, western Long Island and southwestern New England.

A track directly over Atlantic City, N.J., and New York City would bring these intense winds westward to Philadelphia.

The strongest and most sustained hurricane-force winds will be measured in the immediate vicinity of Irene's center.

Widespread tree damage, major power outages and structural damage to buildings and homes would ensue. Glass windows could shatter along the sides of New York City skyscrapers.

Damaging tropical storm-force winds (winds between 40 and 70 mph) will extend 150 miles westward and nearly 250 miles eastward from Irene's center.

These winds will likely reach Richmond, Va., Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia, Pa., Albany, N.Y., and nearly all of New England, threatening to cause significant tree damage and power outages.

The winds will have no trouble downing trees where recent flooding and record rainfall has saturated the ground in areas such as Philadelphia and New York City.

Irene will also cause extremely rough surf to pound the entire mid-Atlantic and New England coastline with severe beach erosion and significant coastal flooding an almost certain guarantee.

A flooding storm surge will further inundate the coastline.

Yachts and boats docked along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts should be moved to higher ground if possible.

The worst case scenario in terms of flooding storm surge for New York City and the mid-Atlantic coast would be Irene tracking directly overhead or slightly to the west.

Serious Flooding Rain From Irene's Center Westward

Places along and west of the center will be subject to Irene's heaviest rain.

The current path of Irene puts places from eastern North Carolina to eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York and western New England at risk to receive 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with locally higher totals.

That rain alone will trigger widespread flooding issues, but AccuWeather.com is extremely concerned for serious flood problems where recent heavy rain has already saturated the ground.

The drainage systems in Philadelphia and New York City are sure to get overwhelmed.

Track Not Set in Stone

"Since a small jog to the west or east would lead to a huge difference in impacts, [AccuWeather.com meteorologists] suggest monitoring this situation closely," cautioned AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Tropical Weather Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski to all residents and visitors in the mid-Atlantic and New England.

If Irene tracks more to the west than currently expected, more of the mid-Atlantic and New York State will be subject to its severe impacts.

It is not totally out of the question that Irene tracks farther eastward than currently forecast. Such a track would shift the zone of flooding rain farther eastward and cause eastern New England to endure the brunt of Irene's destructive winds and coastal flooding.

Virginia declares state of emergency ahead of Hurricane Irene
.Washington Business Journal - by Jeff Clabaugh
Date: Thursday, August 25, 2011, 12:20pm EDT - Last Modified: Thursday, August 25, 2011, 12:44pm EDT

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell Thursday morning declared a state of emergency, ahead of the potential arrival of Hurricane Irene.

“We are issuing this state of emergency today as a precautionary measure in order to ensure that we are ready for any potential effects of Hurricane Irene in the Commonwealth,” McDonnell said in a statement. “At this time, 48 hours before any possible impact of Irene, it is imperative that, in an abundance of caution, all Virginians, state agencies and localities prepare for this storm.”

Irene remains a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds in excess of 115 miles an hour. A hurricane watch has been posted for the coasts of North Carolina and southern Virginia.

“Irene will likely eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states,” wrote Jeff Masters, co-founder of the website Weather Underground.

“I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and the rest of the New England coast.”

Masters estimates the storm could inundate portions of the coast under 10 to 15 feet of water, the highest storm surge depths ever recorded.

Read more here:

N.J. Governor Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Irene
Current Forecast Calls For Heavy Rain, High Winds Sunday
POSTED: 12:46 pm EDT August 25, 2011
UPDATED: 12:50 pm EDT August 25, 2011

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has signed a state of emergency in advance of Hurricane Irene.

The declaration clears the way for the state to deploy resources, such as the National Guard, to counties and municipalities as they prepare for the storm.

The latest forecast calls for Irene to deliver heavy rain and high winds to an already waterlogged state on Sunday.

Christie said the current track calls for New Jersey to face a "serious, significant event."


Read more:

NC governor declares state of emergency for Irene

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) - North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue has declared a state of emergency for the region east of Interstate 95 in preparation of approaching Hurricane Irene.

Perdue also said Thursday she has asked President Barack Obama to declare a federal emergency ahead of the storm reaching North Carolina this weekend to help accelerate response efforts.

The state declaration gives Perdue and state officials more power to respond to the storm, particularly helping local governments with any recovery.

The North Carolina National Guard already has 20 service members deployed and working at the state's two emergency response warehouses. Another 150 or so are on standby.

Read more here:

Hurricane Local Statements for IRENE

Irene May Require NYC Evacuations

New York officials preparing for Hurricane Irene this weekend will decide tomorrow whether to call for the evacuation of low-lying areas in downtown Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.

The decision would be based on the strength, path and speed of the storm, Bloomberg told reporters today at a news conference in a flood-prone section of Queens. The city would offer “an enormous shelter system” for those without a place to stay on higher ground, he said.

“We don’t have enough information yet to make that call,” Bloomberg said. “The timing is a bit up in the air, as it is with all these things. Sometime on Friday, late in the day. How many depends on how severe we think the storm is going to be.”

Officials must decide whether to suggest or order people to seek higher ground, Bloomberg said. The mayor has the power to issue an executive order forcing evacuation, which Bloomberg said he would use only in the “worst circumstances.”

The heightening concern over the approaching storm and the quickening pace of preparations became evident at 11 a.m. today when Bloomberg summoned the city’s elected officials as well as its state legislative delegation to City Hall for a briefing with police and emergency-management officials.

Read more here:

WOW when was the last time NYC had to evacuate for a Hurricane

Thanks for keeping us up to date Blue

000
WTNT34 KNHC 252051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND
PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

From Dr. Jeff Master's Weather Underground Blog.

I trust him and he is not prone to hysteria or hype.

Please note the bold below is his - not mine.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding

In this morning's post, I highlighted the threat from storm surge flooding, but flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are also a huge threat. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 12" to 100-mile swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. At Philadelphia, rainfall so far this August has been 13 inches, not far from the record for rainiest month of all-time, the 15.82" that fell in August 1867. This record will almost certainly be broken when Irene's rains arrive. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.

Latest forecast for Irene

The latest set of model runs don't show any major changes to Irene's track or intensity. Irene will bring damaging winds, torrential rains, and an extremely dangerous storm surge to the coast, affecting a huge area of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Take this storm seriously! Expect widespread disruptions to electric power, transportation, and water systems. Be prepared for many days without power, as utility crews will be overwhelmed with the damage. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is a very dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Jeff Masters

The governor of CT has also declared a state of emergency in preparation for the storm. Latest models put Irene as coming ashore at NYC then proceeding northward through WESTERN CT! Even though the storm will have weakened while traveling over land, with the ground saturated with rain many trees will be uprooted. CL&P (electric co.) is warning customers to be prepared for prolonged power outages. Tomorrow I'm buying my gas for the generator (and car) as well as an extra tank of propane so we can cook on the grill once the storm passes, if we don't have power. We have the above ground pool for water source, as well as about 20 3gal jugs of spring water for drinking and cooking. Don't wait; get ready now if you are anywhere near the path of Irene.

Blue let me be the first to thank you for your personal insight

Don't let your guard down because Irene may have slightly weakened. She is not over the Gulf Stream yet.

Hurricane Irene weakens, stalks U.S. coast

Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina (CNN) -- Tropical storm-force winds and heavy swells from Hurricane Irene loomed just over the horizon Friday morning for residents of North Carolina's south-facing coastal communities.

Irene was still 375 miles to the southwest of North Carolina at 8 a.m. ET on Friday but tropical storm-force winds were already within 100 miles of the North Carolina coast, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said.

The winds and heavy waves should arrive by late morning or early afternoon, he said.

"The timing is such that tonight into Saturday will be the worst for North Carolina and the Virginia Tidewater, Saturday into Sunday for the Delmarva (peninsula) and the eastern part of New Jersey, and then all day Sunday for New England," Read said.

With maximum winds of 110 mph, Irene still fell short Friday morning of major hurricane status, but residents from the Carolinas to New England weren't treating it that way.

Frederico Martins of Williston, New York, found the bottled water and flashlight aisles at his local store cleaned out.

"People here are taking it very seriously. Better to be safe than sorry," Martins said, adding that it was "kind of cool" to see people getting ready for the storm.

It was a similar story in Plainfield, New Jersey, where generators were going fast.

Read more here:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE TAKING AIM AT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD
BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINA...EASTERN
MARYLAND... DELAWARE...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...LONG ISLAND...WESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE IRENE NEARING THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS....


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO DRUM POINT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

The American Red Cross has begun opening emergency shelters.

See the link below to their site:

Red Cross Announces Hurricane Shelter Information

WILMINGTON NC, August 26, 2011 – As Hurricane Irene approached the Cape Fear region, the American Red Cross is preparing to open the following emergency shelters on Friday, August 26 in collaboration with local emergency management offices and the Department of Social Services for people seeking shelter from the storms.

BRUNSWICK COUNTY – All shelters open at 2:00pm
· North Brunswick High School – 1395 Scorpion Drive, Leland, NC 28451
· West Brunswick High School – 550 Whiteville Road, Shallotte, NC 28470 (pet-friendly shelter- dogs and cats only, owners must stay at the shelter with their animals, please bring pet’s food)
· South Brunswick High School- 280 Cougar Road, Southport, NC 28461

NEW HANOVER COUNTY – All shelters opens at 3:00pm
· Noble Middle School – 6520 Market St., Wilmington, NC 28405 (pet-friendly shelter- dogs and cats only, owners must stay at the shelter with their animals, please bring pet’s food)
· Dorothy B Johnson Elementary School – 1100 McRae St. Wilmington, NC 28401

PENDER COUNTY- All shelters open at 3:00pm
· Malpass Corner Elementary School – 4992 Malpass Corner Road, Burgaw, NC 28425
· Burgaw Middle School – 500 South Wright Street, Burgaw, NC 28425 (pet-friendly shelter- dogs and cats only, owners must stay at the shelter with their animals, please bring pet’s food)
· Topsail Elementary- 17385 US Hwy 17, Hampstead, NC 28443

COLUMBUS COUNTY – All shelters open at 6:00pm
· East Columbus High – 32 Gator Ln, Lake Waccamaw, NC 28450
· Edgewood Elementary – 317 East Calhoun Street, Whiteville, NC 28472
· Guideway Elementary – 11570 Swamp Fox Highway East, Tabor City, NC 28463

DUPLIN COUNTY* – All shelters open at 7:00pm
· Wallace Elementary School – 4266 NC 11 South, Wallace NC 28466
· BF Grady Elementary – 2627 North NC 11 & 903 Albertson, NC 28508
· James Kenan High School – 1241 NC 24 & 50 Hwy, Warsaw NC 28398

*Please note the current model for pre-landfall sheltering in Duplin County is that all shelters are managed and operated by Duplin County Department of Social Services. The Red Cross takes a supporting role and partners with Duplin County to manage post-landfall shelters as needed.

Personal items to bring with you to the shelter should include any medicines needed by members of the family, feeding formulas and diapers for infants, a pillow and blanket for each member of the family, a change of clothing, snacks, and books and simple toys for your children.

Public health requirements do not permit us to accept pets in shelters unless they are identified as “pet-friendly”. The “pet-friendly” shelters are West Brunswick High School, Burgaw Middle School and Noble Middle School. Pet owners must bring food for their pets and evidence of current rabies vaccinations and remain at the shelter with their pet. Please contact your local animal control department for more information about obtaining shelter for your pet.

People can find open Red Cross shelters by viewing an interactive Google map at www.redcross.org or by downloading the free Red Cross shelter app for their iPhone from the iTunes store. A mobile-friendly version of the Hurricane Safety Checklist is now available for smart phone users to download at www.redcross.org/mobile.

It’s important that those affected by the storm stay in contact with loved ones and the Red Cross Safe and Well website can help them do that. Safe and Well is a secure, easy-to-use online tool to help families connect in an emergency. People can register by visiting www.redcross.org/safeandwell.